The predicted share price (Closing Price) for Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd for tomorrow (2026-04-23) is ₹103.21 which is 2.63% lower than today’s share price of ₹106.00
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹80.37 vs CMP ₹106.00 (-24.2%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▼ Bearish
Price/EMA: 0.813 · EMA(252): ₹130.31
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
38.4% annualized
Risk: Moderate · Recent trend: Stable
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Random walk
Hurst exponent: 0.496
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
-1.8%5Y-2%10Y
Historical drift: -25.4% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.25x
Upside -24.2% vs downside 97.2% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-31.9%
No margin
Model ConfidenceiShows how reliable our predictions are for this stock. Based on the model's average prediction error over the last 90 days. Low error = high confidence. Also shows data coverage — more data points over longer periods produce more reliable projections. The model self-learns by adjusting parameters every 7 days.
Moderate
Avg error: 3.99% · 520 data points over 606 days
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹3.02
(97.2% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹96.40
₹160.00
CMP: ₹106.0015% into range33.8% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows how long the model expects the stock price to take to converge toward its intrinsic value. The model uses a mathematical convergence rate that pulls the projected price toward intrinsic value gradually. Milestones show the expected price at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence means the price may decline toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹80.37 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹10625% ₹10050% ₹9375% ₹87Target ₹80
Gap: 24.2% downward · Model convergence rate: 5.0 years
What this means: Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd appears overvalued by 24.2% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bearish regime (price below EMA). Volatility is moderate (38.4% annualized).
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
101.81
-4.0%
-4.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
105.84
Feb
106.84
Mar
106.64
Apr
105.56
May
105.07
Jun
104.42
Jul
104.78
Aug
105.23
Sep
103.84
Oct
101.85
Nov
102.19
Dec
101.81
2028
102.15
-3.6%
-1.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
102.63
Feb
104.21
Mar
103.26
Apr
103.55
May
103.12
Jun
104.26
Jul
103.19
Aug
103.38
Sep
102.23
Oct
101.86
Nov
101.90
Dec
102.15
2029
100.52
-5.2%
-1.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
102.31
Feb
101.05
Mar
101.84
Apr
101.30
May
101.03
Jun
100.26
Jul
99.38
Aug
99.82
Sep
99.72
Oct
100.78
Nov
99.42
Dec
100.52
2030
95.89
-9.5%
-2.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
99.89
Feb
99.26
Mar
98.64
Apr
98.03
May
98.38
Jun
97.86
Jul
97.42
Aug
96.86
Sep
96.27
Oct
96.20
Nov
96.19
Dec
95.89
2031
96.68
-8.8%
-1.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
95.74
Feb
95.29
Mar
95.73
Apr
95.72
May
94.79
Jun
94.64
Jul
95.75
Aug
95.70
Sep
96.17
Oct
96.44
Nov
97.01
Dec
96.68
2032
92.43
-12.8%
-2.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
95.89
Feb
95.34
Mar
94.27
Apr
95.36
May
95.21
Jun
95.29
Jul
94.93
Aug
93.73
Sep
94.07
Oct
93.17
Nov
92.77
Dec
92.43
2033
91.35
-13.8%
-2.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
92.84
Feb
92.86
Mar
92.27
Apr
91.75
May
91.71
Jun
91.59
Jul
91.51
Aug
91.23
Sep
90.95
Oct
92.01
Nov
91.67
Dec
91.35
2034
89.36
-15.7%
-2.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
90.33
Feb
90.70
Mar
90.78
Apr
90.15
May
89.31
Jun
90.29
Jul
89.42
Aug
89.81
Sep
89.90
Oct
89.72
Nov
90.25
Dec
89.36
2035
87.05
-17.9%
-2.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
89.35
Feb
89.82
Mar
89.39
Apr
89.93
May
89.83
Jun
89.57
Jul
89.44
Aug
87.87
Sep
88.15
Oct
87.88
Nov
87.56
Dec
87.05
2036
86.57
-18.3%
-2.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
86.48
Feb
86.17
Mar
85.62
Apr
85.26
May
85.33
Jun
85.24
Jul
86.13
Aug
85.51
Sep
85.33
Oct
85.58
Nov
85.82
Dec
86.57
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
2.6%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
67.1%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹4.06
PredictionsiTotal number of daily predictions made for this stock. More predictions = more data for accuracy metrics. The model self-learns and adjusts its parameters every 7 days, so accuracy typically improves over time.
289
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd – Historical Performance vs Predictions
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd – 3-Month Price Forecast
Will Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd share price increase tomorrow?
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd share price is expected to decrease to ₹103.21 on 2026-04-23, which is 2.63% lower than today's price of ₹106.00. This prediction is based on our AI-powered GFBM model.
What is the intrinsic value of Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd?
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd intrinsic value is ₹80.37, which is 24.18% below the current price of ₹106.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd in 2027?
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹101.81 by year-end (range: ₹101.81 to ₹106.84), representing a -3.95% decrease from the current price of ₹106.00.
What is the share price target of Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd in 2028?
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹102.15 by year-end (range: ₹101.86 to ₹104.26), representing a -3.63% decrease from the current price of ₹106.00.
What is the share price target of Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd in 2029?
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹100.52 by year-end (range: ₹99.38 to ₹102.31), representing a -5.17% decrease from the current price of ₹106.00.
Should I buy Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹80.37 vs CMP ₹106.00. This is not investment advice — consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making investment decisions.
What is the fundamental floor price for Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd is ₹3.02, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd
The predicted price for tomorrow is derived using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) formula with drift, volatility, and a random factor to simulate market movements.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance of securities is not indicative of future results. Getaka Financial Technology is not responsible for any investment decisions made on the basis of this information. Investors are advised to seek independent financial advice from a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Please read all associated offer documents and terms carefully before investing.
