The predicted share price (Closing Price) for Ashok Leyland Ltd for tomorrow (2026-04-16) is ₹136.85 which is 11.14% lower than today’s share price of ₹154.00
Ashok Leyland Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹92.03 vs CMP ₹154.00 (-40.2%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▼ Bearish
Price/EMA: 0.862 · EMA(252): ₹178.64
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
152.4% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Falling (recent < historical)
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Mean-reverting
Hurst exponent: 0.388
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
-13%5Y-12.5%10Y
Historical drift: -13.8% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.41x
Upside -40.2% vs downside 98% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-67.3%
No margin
Model ConfidenceiShows how reliable our predictions are for this stock. Based on the model's average prediction error over the last 90 days. Low error = high confidence. Also shows data coverage — more data points over longer periods produce more reliable projections. The model self-learns by adjusting parameters every 7 days.
Low
Avg error: 5.72% · 594 data points over 410 days
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹3.08
(98% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹135.00
₹212.00
CMP: ₹154.0025% into range27.4% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows how long the model expects the stock price to take to converge toward its intrinsic value. The model uses a mathematical convergence rate that pulls the projected price toward intrinsic value gradually. Milestones show the expected price at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence means the price may decline toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹92.03 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹15425% ₹13950% ₹12375% ₹108Target ₹92
Gap: 40.2% downward · Model convergence rate: 5.0 years
What this means: Ashok Leyland Ltd appears overvalued by 40.2% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bearish regime (price below EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.39 suggests mean-reverting behavior — extreme moves tend to reverse. Volatility is high (152.4% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
3.97%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
63.9%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹6.67
PredictionsiTotal number of daily predictions made for this stock. More predictions = more data for accuracy metrics. The model self-learns and adjusts its parameters every 7 days, so accuracy typically improves over time.
366
Ashok Leyland Ltd – Historical Performance vs Predictions
Will Ashok Leyland Ltd share price increase tomorrow?
Ashok Leyland Ltd share price is expected to decrease to ₹136.85 on 2026-04-16, which is 11.14% lower than today's price of ₹154.00. This prediction is based on our AI-powered GFBM model.
What is the intrinsic value of Ashok Leyland Ltd?
Ashok Leyland Ltd intrinsic value is ₹92.03, which is 40.24% below the current price of ₹154.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of Ashok Leyland Ltd in 2027?
Ashok Leyland Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹128.13 by year-end (range: ₹115.52 to ₹141.35), representing a -16.80% decrease from the current price of ₹154.00.
What is the share price target of Ashok Leyland Ltd in 2028?
Ashok Leyland Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹97.06 by year-end (range: ₹97.06 to ₹126.12), representing a -36.97% decrease from the current price of ₹154.00.
What is the share price target of Ashok Leyland Ltd in 2029?
Ashok Leyland Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹81.38 by year-end (range: ₹75.24 to ₹91.13), representing a -47.16% decrease from the current price of ₹154.00.
Should I buy Ashok Leyland Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Ashok Leyland Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹92.03 vs CMP ₹154.00. This is not investment advice — consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making investment decisions.
What is the fundamental floor price for Ashok Leyland Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Ashok Leyland Ltd is ₹3.08, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Ashok Leyland Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Ashok Leyland Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Ashok Leyland Ltd
The predicted price for tomorrow is derived using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) formula with drift, volatility, and a random factor to simulate market movements.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Ashok Leyland Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance of securities is not indicative of future results. Getaka Financial Technology is not responsible for any investment decisions made on the basis of this information. Investors are advised to seek independent financial advice from a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Please read all associated offer documents and terms carefully before investing.
