Avro India Ltd Share Price Target from 2025 to 2035: Expert Forecast & Analysis

Avro India Ltd Stock Price Forecast & Analysis: Predicted vs Actual Trends

Avro India Ltd - Tomorrow's Share Price Probability Distribution

How are the Share Price Targets for Avro India Ltd Calculated?

We calculate the share price targets for Avro India Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.

Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns

The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:

Where:

• S_i: Stock price at time i
• S_i-1: Stock price at time i-1

The log returns are calculated for each consecutive pair of stock prices between the start date (August 21, 2024) and the end date (April 5, 2025).

191 valid data points from the historical price data in the period from August 21, 2024 to April 5, 2025 have been used for the calculations.

Step 2: Calculate the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

The EMA is a weighted average of past prices that gives more importance to recent prices. It is calculated as follows:

Where:

• α: Smoothing factor $\frac{2}{n+1}$
• P_t: Current stock price at time t
• EMA_t-1: EMA from the previous time step

Step 3: Calculate the Drift (Average Growth Rate)

The drift is the average rate at which the stock price grows over time. It is calculated as the mean of the log returns:

For Avro India Ltd, the drift (average growth rate) is 0.07%.

Step 4: Calculate the Volatility

The volatility measures the extent of price fluctuations. It is calculated as the standard deviation of the log returns:

Step 5: Calculate the Hurst Exponent

The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:

Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA

The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.

Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Avro India Ltd

The predicted price for tomorrow is derived using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) formula with drift, volatility, and a random factor to simulate market movements.

Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years

The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.

Conclusion

Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Avro India Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.

Disclaimer

The projected stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance of securities is not indicative of future results. Getaka Financial Technology is not responsible for any investment decisions made on the basis of this information. Investors are advised to seek independent financial advice from a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Please read all associated offer documents and terms carefully before investing.