Barak Valley Cements Ltd Share Price Target
Share price forecasts explained through historical ranges and business assumptions.
26 September 2026, 5:57 am +05:30
Short-term price outlook
Central 80% of past moves, applied to the reference price. Future outcomes can fall outside this range.
Historical median ₹40.18 · 2026-10-28 · 179 matched moves
-14.5% to +16.2% from the reference price
Average error: 10.35% for the model vs 9.58% for using the last price, across 132 historical tests. Future accuracy is unproven.
Inspect the prediction record →Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect each horizon.
All horizons, target dates & calculation notes
| Horizon | Target session | Historical median | Central historical range | Matched moves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session1 regular session | 2026-09-28 | ₹41.26 | ₹39.50 – ₹42.79 | 202 |
| 1 week5 regular sessions | 2026-10-05 | ₹40.88 | ₹37.85 – ₹44.45 | 205 |
| 1 month21 regular sessions | 2026-10-28 | ₹40.18 | ₹35.29 – ₹47.97 | 179 |
| 3 months63 regular sessions | 2026-12-30 | ₹36.57 | ₹31.76 – ₹51.25 | 153 |
Uses regular NSE sessions; special/Muhurat sessions are excluded. Historical windows can overlap and are not independent samples. Calendar verified through 2026; unknown future dates are not guessed.
Where do historical outcomes cluster?
Taller bars mean that price band occurred more often when past returns are applied to the reference price. This expected-price distribution describes history, not your probability of profit.
Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect price bands.
How to read this distribution
Dashed line: reference price. This is an empirical probability estimate under the assumption that past moves remain representative. It is not a calibrated forecast probability. Overlapping windows are dependent; news, regime changes and unobserved tail events can invalidate it. The full observed tails remain included.
What supports—or challenges—the target?
The annual history contains non-positive earnings. A positive median is only a through-cycle reference; recent losses require a separate turnaround review. Earnings vary too sharply for a stable-earnings estimate. Check cyclicality and exceptional items. Profit/EPS and market-cap/price imply materially different share counts. Check units, dilution, splits and standalone/consolidated reporting.
View valuation safeguards and model eligibility →Quarterly net margin
5.03%+2.71 pp year on year
Jun 2026 vs Jun 2025Why it matters & source
Each ₹100 of revenue produced ₹5.03 of reported net profit. Compare the change with tax and other-income movements.
Net profit ÷ revenue × 100. Change is in percentage points (pp), not percent growth.
Current: ₹3.06 Cr profit / ₹60.87 Cr revenue. Prior: ₹1.33 Cr / ₹57.52 Cr.
View the source financial table →Revenue momentum gap
4.12ppLatest quarter +5.8% · trailing year +1.7%
Eight consecutive quarters ending Jun 2026Why it matters & source
The latest quarter grew faster than the four-quarter trend. This comparison describes momentum; it does not predict the next quarter.
Latest-quarter revenue YoY growth minus revenue growth of the latest four quarters against the preceding four.
Latest quarter: ₹60.87 Cr vs ₹57.52 Cr. Four-quarter totals: ₹215.52 Cr vs ₹211.91 Cr.
View the source financial table →Interest coverage
1.75×Earnings before interest and tax / interest
Mar 2026 · annual P&LWhy it matters & source
Reported earnings before interest and tax cover the interest expense 1.8 times. Other income is included; principal repayments are not.
(Profit before tax + interest expense) ÷ interest expense.
Profit before tax: ₹3.00 Cr. Interest: ₹4.00 Cr.
View the source financial table →Borrowings / book equity
0.23×₹23.20 borrowed per ₹100 of equity
Mar 2026 · balance sheetWhy it matters & source
This compares reported borrowings with equity capital plus reserves. It is gross borrowing, not net debt; reserves are not cash.
Borrowings ÷ (equity capital + reserves), from the same balance-sheet date.
Borrowings: ₹29.00 Cr. Equity capital: ₹22.00 Cr. Reserves: ₹103.00 Cr.
View the source financial table →Cash cycle change
11.00days125 days now · 114 days before
Mar 2025 vs Mar 2024Why it matters & source
A shorter cycle can reduce the time cash is tied up in operations. A longer supplier-payment period can also shorten it, so read the components.
Cash cycle = debtor days + inventory days − payable days. Change = current cycle − prior-year cycle.
Current: 33 + 190 − 98 days. Prior: 27 + 201 − 114 days.
View the source financial table →What would change the scenario?
- Earnings: a weaker EPS path lowers the target even if the valuation multiple holds.
- Valuation: a lower future P/E can offset earnings growth. Compare peers and the quality of those earnings.
- Business evidence: revisit assumptions after new results, cash-flow changes and financing updates. The measures above explain the current stored evidence, not future outcomes.
Missing evidence and limitations
- Cash backing needs three consecutive matching years, with positive profit in each year.
What must happen to reach the target?
Explore how earnings growth and the price investors pay for those earnings change the outcome. These scenarios depend on your assumptions; they are not assigned probabilities.
Starting point: ₹41.30 per share · 45.3× stored P/E. EPS is earnings per share; P/E is the price paid for each rupee of earnings.
Illustrative starting assumption; edit it below. Each card states its own growth and future P/E assumptions.
-18.1% over 3 years
+26.0% over 3 years
+65.9% over 3 years
The middle case requires EPS to become 1.26× its starting level over 3 years, with the valuation multiple unchanged.
Calculations, assumptions & automatic checks
₹41.30 × (1 + 8.0% EPS growth)³ × (45.3 ÷ 45.3 P/E) = ₹52.03.
If the P/E falls 25%, a 10% annual price return over 3 years would require 21.1% annual EPS growth.
Automatic guardrails for every stock
Unusable prices, non-positive P/E and P/E above 500× are unsupported. Scenario growth must stay between −30% and 35% (the editable middle case allows −25% to 30% so adjacent cases also fit). A result is withheld if future P/E is outside 0.25–4× the current P/E, price is outside 0.1–10× the reference, or implied annual price change is outside −40% to +40%. These are transparent review thresholds, not calibrated probabilities or limits on what markets can do. We never force a price to a floor or ceiling.
Even a result inside these thresholds can be wrong. Check earnings quality, dilution, company scale and peer valuations. Five- and ten-year cases are especially assumption-sensitive. Old financial periods, stale quotes and unverified corporate actions remain visible; short-term ranges stop when their data checks fail.
Historical EPS CAGR: -62.0% over Mar 2023–Mar 2026. The stored P/E can use a different earnings basis from the dated statements.
Barak Valley Cements Ltd share price targets by year: 2026–2036
These use the initial assumptions above and the actual time to each calendar year-end. They are sensitivities, not precise forecasts. Unavailable cells failed the displayed guardrails. The interactive cards can be changed independently.
| Year-end | Cautious | Middle case | Strong execution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Unavailable | ₹42.14 | Unavailable |
| 2027 | ₹32.15 | ₹45.50 | ₹55.39 |
| 2028 | ₹33.11 | ₹49.15 | ₹62.61 |
| 2029 | ₹34.10 | ₹53.08 | ₹70.74 |
| 2030 | ₹35.13 | ₹57.32 | ₹79.93 |
| 2031 | ₹36.18 | ₹61.91 | ₹90.32 |
| 2032 | ₹37.27 | ₹66.87 | ₹102.08 |
| 2033 | ₹38.38 | ₹72.22 | ₹115.35 |
| 2034 | ₹39.54 | ₹77.99 | ₹130.33 |
| 2035 | ₹40.72 | ₹84.22 | ₹147.26 |
| 2036 | ₹41.94 | ₹90.98 | ₹166.45 |
Price return excludes dividends, dilution beyond the assumed EPS path, taxes and dealing costs. Negative or unusable P/E requires a different valuation approach. Long horizons magnify small assumption changes.
How close were predictions to actual prices?
Predicted price vs actual price: a smaller gap means a closer estimate. Choose a source to distinguish earlier saved predictions, historical tests and forecasts actually published by this model.
Restored stored predictions matched to the same target date as each actual observation. Legacy horizons and issuance cutoffs were not consistently recorded; these values are preserved for inspection, not certified as an out-of-sample performance record.
Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect the date, actual price, prediction and error.
Historical test results & reliability by horizon
The table reconstructs each historical forecast using only price observations available before its target date. “Last price” is the simple benchmark. Lower error is better; interval coverage shows how often outcomes fell inside the historical range.
| Horizon | Model error (MAPE) | Last-price error | Range coverage | Evaluations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | 2.85% | 2.83% | 73.1% | 167 |
| 1 week | 5.40% | 5.53% | 77.5% | 160 |
| 1 month | 10.35% | 9.58% | 60.6% | 132 |
| 3 months | 18.17% | 16.21% | 50.0% | 86 |
The one-session method did not beat the last-price benchmark in this reconstruction. Use it to explore variation, not as evidence of a trading advantage. Evaluated target dates: 2025-01-30–2026-09-25.
How to interpret these tests
At least 126 earlier regular sessions and 40 matched historical moves are required at each origin. Quantiles use at most the previous 504 regular sessions, with no future endpoints. Missing endpoints are skipped. Multi-session tests overlap; counts are not independent trials. An 80% historical band is not guaranteed to cover 80% of future prices.
This reconstruction uses the database as it exists today, including any later corrections. Price observations are stored feed updates, not verified official closes or a certified adjusted-price series. It is not a live trading record, and it excludes fees, dividends and execution effects.
Published forecast ledger & pending targets
The first published range for each stock, day and horizon is saved separately and never overwritten. Later intraday changes may differ from that first issue. No earlier performance is backfilled as a live result.
| Issued | Target | Sessions | Published range | Later observation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 20:10:09 | 2026-09-28 | 1 | ₹39.50 – ₹42.79 | Pending |
| 2026-09-26 20:10:09 | 2026-10-05 | 5 | ₹37.85 – ₹44.45 | Pending |
| 2026-09-26 20:10:09 | 2026-10-28 | 21 | ₹35.29 – ₹47.97 | Pending |
| 2026-09-26 20:10:09 | 2026-12-30 | 63 | ₹31.76 – ₹51.25 | Pending |
| 2026-09-26 07:59:11 | 2026-09-28 | 1 | ₹39.50 – ₹42.79 | Pending |
| 2026-09-26 07:59:11 | 2026-10-05 | 5 | ₹37.85 – ₹44.45 | Pending |
| 2026-09-26 07:59:11 | 2026-10-28 | 21 | ₹35.29 – ₹47.97 | Pending |
| 2026-09-26 07:59:11 | 2026-12-30 | 63 | ₹31.76 – ₹51.25 | Pending |
Data, sources & method
Quote records and financial statements refresh independently. Check the reporting dates before using a scenario.
View data dates, methodology & source links
Price history
293 usable daily observations from 2024-07-26 to 2026-09-25. We retain the last actual record per regular session, exclude forecast-only and ambiguous prediction rows, and do not fill missing prices. The 10th/50th/90th percentiles of matched horizon returns produce the range and historical median.
Business assumptions
Scenario price = reference price × (1 + annual EPS growth)years × future P/E ÷ current P/E. Assumptions are editable and explicitly separate from observed results. Model valuation is an estimate, not a promised destination.
Data freshness
Annual: Mar 2026. Quarterly: Jun 2026. Cash flow: Mar 2026. Sources refresh independently; check reporting basis, exceptional items and corporate actions.
Sources: Company data source. Check the company filings linked by the source for the reporting basis and exceptional items.
Produced automatically by Getaka from stored data using method 2.0.0. There is no analyst consensus claim or human-review claim. Unexpected news, policy changes and company events can move prices outside these ranges.
Barak Valley Cements Ltd target questions
What is the share price target for Barak Valley Cements Ltd?
There is no single dependable target. Use the dated short-term historical ranges for price variation and the earnings/P/E scenarios for longer-term assumptions. The reference price is ₹41.30; actual outcomes may differ materially.
Does intrinsic value predict the next market price?
No. Intrinsic value depends on a valuation method and its inputs. It does not predict when investors will change the price or guarantee convergence.
How reliable are the price ranges?
Reliability depends on data coverage and the horizon. The chronological tests above show error against a last-price benchmark and observed interval coverage. The separate published record starts with this model version; a heuristic percentage is not presented as confidence.
What should I check before using a long-term scenario?
Check the dated earnings trend, cash generation, financing exposure and future valuation multiple. Revisit the assumptions when new filings arrive. A mathematically possible price is not evidence that the business will deliver it.
How to assess Barak Valley Cements Ltd share price targets
Compare the growth and valuation assumptions with reported profitability, debt and operating cash flow. A higher projected price needs supporting business performance; weaker earnings or a lower valuation multiple can produce a different outcome.
Start with Barak Valley Cements Ltd fundamentals and financial statements, then review what the P/E ratio measures and alternative intrinsic-value methods.