The predicted share price (Closing Price) for Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd for tomorrow (2026-04-25) is ₹75.87 which is 6.56% higher than today’s share price of ₹71.20
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Undervalued
Intrinsic ₹105.35 vs CMP ₹71.20 (+48.0%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▼ Bearish
Price/EMA: 0.708 · EMA(252): ₹100.59
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
47.1% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Rising (recent > historical)
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Mean-reverting
Hurst exponent: 0.400
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
+0.1%5Y-0.7%10Y
Historical drift: -35% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
0.55x
Upside +48% vs downside 87.5% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
+32.4%
Strong margin
Model ConfidenceiShows how reliable our predictions are for this stock. Based on the model's average prediction error over the last 90 days. Low error = high confidence. Also shows data coverage — more data points over longer periods produce more reliable projections. The model self-learns by adjusting parameters every 7 days.
Moderate
Avg error: 4.42% · 477 data points over 610 days
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹8.89
(87.5% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹59.30
₹144.00
CMP: ₹71.2014% into range50.6% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows how long the model expects the stock price to take to converge toward its intrinsic value. The model uses a mathematical convergence rate that pulls the projected price toward intrinsic value gradually. Milestones show the expected price at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence means the price may decline toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹105.35 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹7125% ₹8050% ₹8875% ₹97Target ₹105
Gap: 48.0% upward · Model convergence rate: 5.0 years
What this means: Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd appears undervalued by 48.0% based on fundamentals. The stock is currently in a bearish regime (price below EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.40 suggests mean-reverting behavior — extreme moves tend to reverse. Volatility is high (47.1% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
67.32
-5.4%
-5.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
70.44
Feb
71.21
Mar
72.28
Apr
71.53
May
70.37
Jun
69.72
Jul
69.60
Aug
69.11
Sep
68.06
Oct
68.20
Nov
67.12
Dec
67.32
2028
67.28
-5.5%
-2.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
66.82
Feb
67.16
Mar
68.34
Apr
69.08
May
69.43
Jun
68.91
Jul
68.09
Aug
66.92
Sep
66.13
Oct
67.21
Nov
66.76
Dec
67.28
2029
68.69
-3.5%
-1.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
67.16
Feb
66.72
Mar
64.27
Apr
64.65
May
64.84
Jun
65.15
Jul
66.77
Aug
67.36
Sep
66.73
Oct
66.99
Nov
67.91
Dec
68.69
2030
73.36
+3.0%
+0.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
69.11
Feb
70.07
Mar
70.81
Apr
71.02
May
72.29
Jun
71.10
Jul
72.14
Aug
73.15
Sep
73.31
Oct
73.32
Nov
73.31
Dec
73.36
2031
71.40
+0.3%
+0.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
73.96
Feb
74.18
Mar
74.44
Apr
72.85
May
72.25
Jun
72.87
Jul
72.70
Aug
72.43
Sep
71.51
Oct
71.68
Nov
71.98
Dec
71.40
2032
71.91
+1.0%
+0.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
72.08
Feb
72.02
Mar
73.25
Apr
72.14
May
71.04
Jun
70.58
Jul
70.77
Aug
69.61
Sep
70.95
Oct
71.73
Nov
72.76
Dec
71.91
2033
70.53
-0.9%
-0.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
72.59
Feb
72.74
Mar
72.35
Apr
71.21
May
71.56
Jun
71.62
Jul
71.80
Aug
71.41
Sep
71.19
Oct
70.14
Nov
70.38
Dec
70.53
2034
66.65
-6.4%
-0.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
69.05
Feb
69.74
Mar
67.87
Apr
68.07
May
68.02
Jun
68.23
Jul
66.81
Aug
66.49
Sep
66.71
Oct
67.22
Nov
66.30
Dec
66.65
2035
67.46
-5.3%
-0.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
67.18
Feb
67.02
Mar
68.39
Apr
68.71
May
69.23
Jun
68.47
Jul
69.74
Aug
68.64
Sep
67.31
Oct
67.08
Nov
67.39
Dec
67.46
2036
66.47
-6.6%
-0.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
68.05
Feb
66.50
Mar
65.88
Apr
65.67
May
66.22
Jun
66.46
Jul
66.11
Aug
66.65
Sep
66.28
Oct
65.76
Nov
65.91
Dec
66.47
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
2.74%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
69.2%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹3.12
PredictionsiTotal number of daily predictions made for this stock. More predictions = more data for accuracy metrics. The model self-learns and adjusts its parameters every 7 days, so accuracy typically improves over time.
289
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd – Historical Performance vs Predictions
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd – 3-Month Price Forecast
Will Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd share price increase tomorrow?
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd share price is expected to increase to ₹75.87 on 2026-04-25, which is 6.56% higher than today's price of ₹71.20. This prediction is based on our AI-powered GFBM model.
What is the intrinsic value of Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd?
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd intrinsic value is ₹105.35, which is 47.96% above the current price of ₹71.20. This suggests the stock is currently undervalued.
What is the share price target of Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd in 2027?
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹67.32 by year-end (range: ₹67.12 to ₹72.28), representing a -5.45% decrease from the current price of ₹71.20.
What is the share price target of Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd in 2028?
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹67.28 by year-end (range: ₹66.13 to ₹69.43), representing a -5.51% decrease from the current price of ₹71.20.
What is the share price target of Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd in 2029?
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹68.69 by year-end (range: ₹64.27 to ₹68.69), representing a -3.53% decrease from the current price of ₹71.20.
Should I buy Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd appears to be a consider buying candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹105.35 vs CMP ₹71.20. This is not investment advice — consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making investment decisions.
What is the fundamental floor price for Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd is ₹8.89, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd
The predicted price for tomorrow is derived using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) formula with drift, volatility, and a random factor to simulate market movements.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Chennai Ferrous Industries Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance of securities is not indicative of future results. Getaka Financial Technology is not responsible for any investment decisions made on the basis of this information. Investors are advised to seek independent financial advice from a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Please read all associated offer documents and terms carefully before investing.
