What is the modelled fundamental reference level for ERP Soft Systems Ltd?

The modelled fundamental reference level for ERP Soft Systems Ltd is ₹1.84, calculated from book value per share and financial-strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity ratio and interest coverage). It is not a guaranteed minimum; market prices can trade below it during ordinary or stressed conditions when expectations or fundamentals change.

← ERP Soft Systems Ltd Intrinsic Value & Fundamental Analysis

ERP Soft Systems Ltd Share Price Target & Forecast 2027–2036

Q: What is the intrinsic value of ERP Soft Systems Ltd?

ERP Soft Systems Ltd intrinsic value is ₹27.25, which is 62.15% below the current price of ₹72.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.

Q: Should I buy ERP Soft Systems Ltd stock now?

The current Getaka valuation framework assigns ERP Soft Systems Ltd a 'consider reviewing your position' research stance. Intrinsic value is ₹27.25 vs current price ₹72.00. This is model output, not personalised investment advice; any decision should also consider risk tolerance, investment horizon and portfolio context.

Explore the year-by-year forecast for ERP Soft Systems Ltd alongside its financial results and valuation. The estimates depend on the model assumptions; use the ranges and the evidence behind them when comparing scenarios.

Last Updated: 25 Sep 2026

The next market-day median forecast for ERP Soft Systems Ltd (2026-09-28) is ₹58.40 which is 14.99% lower than today’s share price of ₹68.70 with a 10–90% range of ₹58.40–₹58.40. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.

Interactive Share Price Forecast

Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.

Scenario controls

Quick horizon

Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.

Custom trading days: 1

1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.

Scenario

Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.

Range band

Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.

Volatility stress: 100%

Higher volatility widens the forecast range.

Intrinsic value influence: 100%

Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.

Target date--

Median forecast--

Expected return--

Selected range--

Chance of upside--

Confidence--

Horizon	Target date	Median forecast	Range	Return	Chance of upside

Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.

ERP Soft Systems Ltd – Investor Insights

Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.

Overvalued

Intrinsic ₹27.98 vs CMP ₹68.70 (-59.3%)

Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.

▼ Bearish

Price/EMA: 0.818 · EMA(252): ₹83.94

VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.

75.6% annualized

Risk: High · Recent trend: Stable

Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.

Random walk

Hurst exponent: 0.521

Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.

-2.2% 5Y -0.2% 10Y

Historical drift: -27.5% annualized

Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.

-0.61x

Upside -59.3% vs downside 97.3% · Unfavourable

Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.

-145.5%

No margin

Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.

High (76.6%)

Chance of upside: 0.0% · Avg forecast error: 7.22% · 321 data points

Fundamental FlooriA modelled fundamental reference level based on book value and financial-strength inputs (including ROE, ROCE and debt ratios). It is not a guaranteed price floor: market prices can trade below it when fundamentals change or during stressed conditions.

₹1.84

(97.3% below CMP)

52-Week Range

iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.

₹43.90

₹144.00

CMP: ₹68.7025% into range52.3% below 52W high

Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.

▲ 5 months up (33%)▼ 10 months down

Avg: -0.62%/moBest: +35.1%Worst: -27.4%Months analysed: 15

Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.

Target: ₹27.98 in ~5.0 years (2031)

Now
₹6925%
₹5950%
₹4875%
₹38Target
₹28

Gap: 59.3% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years

What this means: ERP Soft Systems Ltd appears overvalued by 59.3% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bearish regime (price below EMA). Volatility is high (75.6% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.

ERP Soft Systems Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)

Year

Projected Price (₹)

Growth %

CAGR

2027

75.14

+9.4%

2028

72.59

+5.7%

+2.8%

2029

68.81

+0.2%

+0.1%

2030

64.18

-6.6%

-1.7%

2031

61.48

-10.5%

-2.2%

2032

58.19

-15.3%

-2.7%

2033

61.61

-10.3%

-1.5%

2034

63.87

-7.0%

-0.9%

2035

64.12

-6.7%

-0.8%

2036

67.35

-2.0%

-0.2%

ERP Soft Systems Ltd Stock Price Analysis

Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.

5.25%

Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.

48.1%

Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.

₹4.92

PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.

189

View period

Chart layers Actual price Predicted price Error % line Prediction dates only

Selected period: MaxMAPE: 5.25%Direction: 48.1%Avg error: ₹4.92Forecast points: 189

ERP Soft Systems Ltd – Historical Performance vs Predictions

ERP Soft Systems Ltd – 3-Month Price Forecast

90-day target: ₹53.77|Range: ₹33.99 – ₹85.06|By: 23 Dec 2026

ERP Soft Systems Ltd Next Market-Day Share Price Probability Distribution

Median forecast: ₹58.40 · Expected range: ₹58.40 – ₹58.40 · Chance of upside: 0.0%

ERP Soft Systems Ltd Share Price Target – Frequently Asked Questions

Will ERP Soft Systems Ltd share price increase on the next market day?

ERP Soft Systems Ltd median forecast is ₹58.40 on 2026-09-28, which is 14.99% lower than today’s price of ₹68.70. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹58.40 to ₹58.40. Forecast confidence is 76.6%, with probability-up estimate of 0.0%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.

What is the intrinsic value of ERP Soft Systems Ltd?

ERP Soft Systems Ltd intrinsic value is ₹27.98, which is 59.27% below the current price of ₹68.70. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.

What is the share price target of ERP Soft Systems Ltd in 2027?

ERP Soft Systems Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹75.14 by year-end (range: ₹66.99 to ₹75.14), representing a 9.37% increase from the current price of ₹68.70.

What is the share price target of ERP Soft Systems Ltd in 2028?

ERP Soft Systems Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹72.59 by year-end (range: ₹71.28 to ₹78.22), representing a 5.66% increase from the current price of ₹68.70.

What is the share price target of ERP Soft Systems Ltd in 2029?

ERP Soft Systems Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹68.81 by year-end (range: ₹68.23 to ₹71.94), representing a 0.16% increase from the current price of ₹68.70.

Should I buy ERP Soft Systems Ltd stock now?

Based on current analysis, ERP Soft Systems Ltd currently receives a consider reviewing your position research stance from this valuation framework. Intrinsic value is ₹27.98 vs CMP ₹68.70. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.

What is the fundamental floor price for ERP Soft Systems Ltd?

The fundamental floor price for ERP Soft Systems Ltd is ₹1.84, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is a modelled reference level rather than a guaranteed minimum, and the market price can trade below it.

Want to understand our prediction methodology?
Learn how Getaka’s forecasting method works →

ERP Soft Systems Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets

We calculate the share price targets for ERP Soft Systems Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.

Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns

The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:

$Log Return = \ln (\frac{S_{i}}{S_{i - 1}})$

Where:

S_i: Stock price at time i
S_i-1: Stock price at time i-1

The log returns are calculated for each consecutive pair of stock prices between the start date (August 21, 2024) and the end date (September 24, 2026).

321 valid data points from the historical price data in the period from August 21, 2024 to September 24, 2026 have been used for the calculations.

Step 2: Calculate the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

The EMA is a weighted average of past prices that gives more importance to recent prices. It is calculated as follows:

$EMA = α \times P_{t} + (1 - α) \times {EMA}_{t - 1}$

Where:

α: Smoothing factor $\frac{2}{n + 1}$
P_t: Current stock price at time t
EMA_t-1: EMA from the previous time step

Step 3: Calculate the Drift (Average Growth Rate)

The drift is the average rate at which the stock price grows over time. It is calculated as the mean of the log returns:

$μ = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i = 1}^{n} \ln (\frac{S_{i}}{S_{i - 1}})$

For ERP Soft Systems Ltd, the drift (average growth rate) is -0.11%.

Step 4: Calculate the Volatility

The volatility measures the extent of price fluctuations. It is calculated as the standard deviation of the log returns:

$σ = \sqrt{\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i = 1}^{n} {(\ln (\frac{S_{i}}{S_{i - 1}}) - μ)}^{2}}$

Step 5: Calculate the Hurst Exponent

The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:

$H = \frac{\log (R / S)}{\log (n)}$

Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA

The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.

Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for ERP Soft Systems Ltd

The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.

Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years

The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.

Conclusion

Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for ERP Soft Systems Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.

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ERP Soft Systems Ltd Intrinsic Value & Analysis

Browse All Share Price Targets

All Stock Fundamental Analysis Reports

How to assess ERP Soft Systems Ltd share price targets

Compare the growth and valuation assumptions with reported profitability, debt and operating cash flow. A higher projected price needs supporting business performance; weaker earnings or a lower valuation multiple can produce a different outcome.

Start with ERP Soft Systems Ltd fundamentals and financial statements, then review what the P/E ratio measures and alternative intrinsic-value methods.

Research basis & forecast validation

Data as of: 24 Sep 2026 · Analysis owner: Getaka · Method: Getaka quantitative valuation + GFBM/EMA forecasting.

Historical forecast validation: 184 aligned forecasts · MAPE 5.09% · direction accuracy 50.0%.

Targets are model outputs, not promises. The page should be read together with valuation, profitability, balance-sheet risk, volatility and forecast-error information. Read the forecasting methodology.

Compare IT Consulting & Software share price targets →

Disclaimer

The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.