What is the modelled fundamental reference level for Elecon Engineering Company Ltd?

The modelled fundamental reference level for Elecon Engineering Company Ltd is ₹11.16, calculated from book value per share and financial-strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity ratio and interest coverage). It is not a guaranteed minimum; market prices can trade below it during ordinary or stressed conditions when expectations or fundamentals change.

← Elecon Engineering Company Ltd Intrinsic Value & Fundamental Analysis

ELECON Share Price Target & Forecast 2027–2036

Q: What is the intrinsic value of Elecon Engineering Company Ltd?

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd intrinsic value is ₹297.65, which is 29.47% below the current price of ₹422.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.

Q: Will Elecon Engineering Company Ltd share price increase tomorrow?

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd share price median forecast is ₹485.45 for 2026-09-25, which is 15.04% higher than today’s price of ₹422.00. The 10-90% range is ₹455.62 to ₹518.90. Forecast confidence is 81.1%, with probability-up estimate of 5.4%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.

Q: Should I buy Elecon Engineering Company Ltd stock now?

The current Getaka valuation framework assigns Elecon Engineering Company Ltd a 'consider reviewing your position' research stance. Intrinsic value is ₹297.65 vs current price ₹422.00. This is model output, not personalised investment advice; any decision should also consider risk tolerance, investment horizon and portfolio context.

Explore the year-by-year forecast for Elecon Engineering Company Ltd alongside its financial results and valuation. The estimates depend on the model assumptions; use the ranges and the evidence behind them when comparing scenarios.

Last Updated: 24 Sep 2026

The next market-day median forecast for Elecon Engineering Company Ltd (2026-09-25) is ₹485.45 which is 7.71% lower than today’s share price of ₹526.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹455.62–₹518.90. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.

Interactive Share Price Forecast

Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.

Scenario controls

Quick horizon

Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.

Custom trading days: 1

1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.

Scenario

Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.

Range band

Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.

Volatility stress: 100%

Higher volatility widens the forecast range.

Intrinsic value influence: 100%

Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.

Target date--

Median forecast--

Expected return--

Selected range--

Chance of upside--

Confidence--

Horizon	Target date	Median forecast	Range	Return	Chance of upside

Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd – Investor Insights

Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.

Overvalued

Intrinsic ₹292.25 vs CMP ₹526.00 (-44.4%)

Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.

▲ Bullish

Price/EMA: 1.090 · EMA(252): ₹482.77

VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.

80.5% annualized

Risk: High · Recent trend: Rising (recent > historical)

Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.

Mean-reverting

Hurst exponent: 0.395

Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.

-1.4% 5Y +0.7% 10Y

Historical drift: -4% annualized

Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.

-0.45x

Upside -44.4% vs downside 97.9% · Unfavourable

Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.

-80%

No margin

Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.

High (81.1%)

Chance of upside: 5.4% · Avg forecast error: 5.54% · 599 data points

Fundamental FlooriA modelled fundamental reference level based on book value and financial-strength inputs (including ROE, ROCE and debt ratios). It is not a guaranteed price floor: market prices can trade below it when fundamentals change or during stressed conditions.

₹11.16

(97.9% below CMP)

52-Week Range

iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.

₹355.00

₹540.00

CMP: ₹526.0092% into range2.6% below 52W high

Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.

▲ 14 months up (50%)▼ 14 months down

Avg: +0.26%/moBest: +48.2%Worst: -17.7%Months analysed: 28

Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.

Target: ₹292.25 in ~5.0 years (2031)

Now
₹52625%
₹46850%
₹40975%
₹351Target
₹292

Gap: 44.4% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years

What this means: Elecon Engineering Company Ltd appears overvalued by 44.4% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bullish regime (price above EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.40 suggests mean-reverting behavior — extreme moves tend to reverse. Volatility is high (80.5% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)

Year

Projected Price (₹)

Growth %

CAGR

2027

481.56

-8.4%

2028

608.56

+15.7%

+7.6%

2029

587.44

+11.7%

+3.8%

2030

524.93

-0.2%

-0.1%

2031

489.85

-6.9%

-1.4%

2032

486.18

-7.6%

-1.3%

2033

443.94

-15.6%

-2.4%

2034

534.99

+1.7%

+0.2%

2035

592.66

+12.7%

+1.3%

2036

561.94

+6.8%

+0.7%

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd Stock Price Analysis

Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.

3.27%

Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.

63.6%

Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.

₹17.03

PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.

368

View period

Chart layers Actual price Predicted price Error % line Prediction dates only

Selected period: MaxMAPE: 3.27%Direction: 63.6%Avg error: ₹17.03Forecast points: 368

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd – Historical Performance vs Predictions

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd – 3-Month Price Forecast

90-day target: ₹390.74|Range: ₹242.49 – ₹629.62|By: 13 Dec 2026

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd Next Market-Day Share Price Probability Distribution

Median forecast: ₹485.45 · Expected range: ₹455.62 – ₹518.90 · Chance of upside: 5.4%

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd Share Price Target – Frequently Asked Questions

Will Elecon Engineering Company Ltd share price increase on the next market day?

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd median forecast is ₹485.45 on 2026-09-25, which is 7.71% lower than today’s price of ₹526.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹455.62 to ₹518.90. Forecast confidence is 81.1%, with probability-up estimate of 5.4%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.

What is the intrinsic value of Elecon Engineering Company Ltd?

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd intrinsic value is ₹292.25, which is 44.44% below the current price of ₹526.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.

What is the share price target of Elecon Engineering Company Ltd in 2027?

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹481.56 by year-end (range: ₹467.25 to ₹554.59), representing a -8.45% decrease from the current price of ₹526.00.

What is the share price target of Elecon Engineering Company Ltd in 2028?

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹608.56 by year-end (range: ₹474.48 to ₹665.17), representing a 15.70% increase from the current price of ₹526.00.

What is the share price target of Elecon Engineering Company Ltd in 2029?

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹587.44 by year-end (range: ₹563.51 to ₹609.73), representing a 11.68% increase from the current price of ₹526.00.

Should I buy Elecon Engineering Company Ltd stock now?

Based on current analysis, Elecon Engineering Company Ltd currently receives a consider reviewing your position research stance from this valuation framework. Intrinsic value is ₹292.25 vs CMP ₹526.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.

What is the fundamental floor price for Elecon Engineering Company Ltd?

The fundamental floor price for Elecon Engineering Company Ltd is ₹11.16, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is a modelled reference level rather than a guaranteed minimum, and the market price can trade below it.

Want to understand our prediction methodology?
Learn how Getaka’s forecasting method works →

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets

We calculate the share price targets for Elecon Engineering Company Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.

Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns

The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:

$Log Return = \ln (\frac{S_{i}}{S_{i - 1}})$

Where:

S_i: Stock price at time i
S_i-1: Stock price at time i-1

The log returns are calculated for each consecutive pair of stock prices between the start date (May 6, 2025) and the end date (September 23, 2026).

599 valid data points from the historical price data in the period from May 6, 2025 to September 23, 2026 have been used for the calculations.

Step 2: Calculate the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

The EMA is a weighted average of past prices that gives more importance to recent prices. It is calculated as follows:

$EMA = α \times P_{t} + (1 - α) \times {EMA}_{t - 1}$

Where:

α: Smoothing factor $\frac{2}{n + 1}$
P_t: Current stock price at time t
EMA_t-1: EMA from the previous time step

Step 3: Calculate the Drift (Average Growth Rate)

The drift is the average rate at which the stock price grows over time. It is calculated as the mean of the log returns:

$μ = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i = 1}^{n} \ln (\frac{S_{i}}{S_{i - 1}})$

For Elecon Engineering Company Ltd, the drift (average growth rate) is -0.02%.

Step 4: Calculate the Volatility

The volatility measures the extent of price fluctuations. It is calculated as the standard deviation of the log returns:

$σ = \sqrt{\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i = 1}^{n} {(\ln (\frac{S_{i}}{S_{i - 1}}) - μ)}^{2}}$

Step 5: Calculate the Hurst Exponent

The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:

$H = \frac{\log (R / S)}{\log (n)}$

Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA

The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.

Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Elecon Engineering Company Ltd

The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.

Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years

The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.

Conclusion

Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Elecon Engineering Company Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.

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Elecon Engineering Company Ltd Intrinsic Value & Analysis

Browse All Share Price Targets

All Stock Fundamental Analysis Reports

How to assess Elecon Engineering Company Ltd share price targets

Compare the growth and valuation assumptions with reported profitability, debt and operating cash flow. A higher projected price needs supporting business performance; weaker earnings or a lower valuation multiple can produce a different outcome.

Start with Elecon Engineering Company Ltd fundamentals and financial statements, then review what the P/E ratio measures and alternative intrinsic-value methods.

Research basis & forecast validation

Data as of: 23 Sep 2026 · Analysis owner: Getaka · Method: Getaka quantitative valuation + GFBM/EMA forecasting.

Historical forecast validation: 353 aligned forecasts · MAPE 3.17% · direction accuracy 64.9%.

Targets are model outputs, not promises. The page should be read together with valuation, profitability, balance-sheet risk, volatility and forecast-error information. Read the forecasting methodology.

Compare Engineering - Heavy share price targets →

Disclaimer

The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.