The next market-day median forecast for Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd (2026-08-31) is ₹228.31 which is 7.19% lower than today’s share price of ₹246.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹209.10–₹248.09. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹132.64 vs CMP ₹246.00 (-46.1%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
● Neutral
Price/EMA: 1.004 · EMA(252): ₹245.10
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
59.4% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Rising (recent > historical)
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Trending (persistent)
Hurst exponent: 0.638
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
-0.9%5Y-0.2%10Y
Historical drift: +13.4% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.48x
Upside -46.1% vs downside 95.6% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-85.5%
No margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
High (87.3%)
Chance of upside: 12.3% · Avg forecast error: 2.77% · 566 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹10.74
(95.6% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹188.00
₹356.00
CMP: ₹246.0035% into range30.9% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹132.64 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹24625% ₹21850% ₹18975% ₹161Target ₹133
Gap: 46.1% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd appears overvalued by 46.1% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is in a neutral regime. A Hurst exponent of 0.64 indicates trending behavior — recent price momentum is likely to persist. Volatility is high (59.4% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
247.06
+0.4%
+0.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
248.75
Feb
249.67
Mar
247.60
Apr
247.64
May
248.44
Jun
247.85
Jul
249.22
Aug
249.02
Sep
247.65
Oct
245.52
Nov
247.69
Dec
247.06
2028
245.00
-0.4%
-0.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
245.92
Feb
248.80
Mar
246.38
Apr
246.31
May
245.79
Jun
243.14
Jul
242.69
Aug
242.52
Sep
243.52
Oct
244.90
Nov
244.34
Dec
245.00
2029
245.81
-0.1%
0.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
247.42
Feb
246.49
Mar
247.61
Apr
248.01
May
246.99
Jun
244.82
Jul
244.01
Aug
245.34
Sep
245.10
Oct
243.39
Nov
242.83
Dec
245.81
2030
240.84
-2.1%
-0.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
243.53
Feb
243.40
Mar
243.00
Apr
240.15
May
239.22
Jun
242.38
Jul
241.32
Aug
237.87
Sep
240.55
Oct
240.57
Nov
242.02
Dec
240.84
2031
235.11
-4.4%
-0.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
241.88
Feb
240.38
Mar
239.28
Apr
238.20
May
237.57
Jun
236.42
Jul
235.73
Aug
237.09
Sep
235.12
Oct
235.79
Nov
235.51
Dec
235.11
2032
241.58
-1.8%
-0.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
236.43
Feb
238.14
Mar
237.79
Apr
238.43
May
240.01
Jun
239.32
Jul
242.38
Aug
241.70
Sep
240.71
Oct
242.58
Nov
240.81
Dec
241.58
2033
240.09
-2.4%
-0.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
242.28
Feb
240.96
Mar
240.97
Apr
241.24
May
240.80
Jun
240.48
Jul
240.78
Aug
241.75
Sep
240.42
Oct
239.79
Nov
240.31
Dec
240.09
2034
235.80
-4.1%
-0.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
243.21
Feb
244.19
Mar
240.21
Apr
241.19
May
238.43
Jun
238.88
Jul
236.53
Aug
239.46
Sep
237.51
Oct
237.47
Nov
237.79
Dec
235.80
2035
236.34
-3.9%
-0.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
235.07
Feb
235.51
Mar
235.97
Apr
235.01
May
234.69
Jun
235.92
Jul
236.45
Aug
238.15
Sep
239.19
Oct
236.59
Nov
237.30
Dec
236.34
2036
240.96
-2.0%
-0.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
238.91
Feb
240.45
Mar
239.20
Apr
240.54
May
241.25
Jun
239.74
Jul
240.75
Aug
241.01
Sep
240.43
Oct
239.25
Nov
239.34
Dec
240.96
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
4.32%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
69.8%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹10.47
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd median forecast is ₹228.31 on 2026-08-31, which is 7.19% lower than today’s price of ₹246.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹209.10 to ₹248.09. Forecast confidence is 87.3%, with probability-up estimate of 12.3%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd?
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd intrinsic value is ₹132.64, which is 46.08% below the current price of ₹246.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd in 2027?
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹247.06 by year-end (range: ₹245.52 to ₹249.67), representing a 0.43% increase from the current price of ₹246.00.
What is the share price target of Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd in 2028?
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹245.00 by year-end (range: ₹242.52 to ₹248.80), representing a -0.41% decrease from the current price of ₹246.00.
What is the share price target of Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd in 2029?
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹245.81 by year-end (range: ₹242.83 to ₹248.01), representing a -0.08% decrease from the current price of ₹246.00.
Should I buy Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹132.64 vs CMP ₹246.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd is ₹10.74, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
