The next market-day median forecast for Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd (2026-09-16) is ₹96.77 which is 5.13% lower than today’s share price of ₹102.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹94.14–₹99.54. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹71.76 vs CMP ₹102.00 (-29.6%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▲ Bullish
Price/EMA: 1.060 · EMA(252): ₹96.27
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
47.7% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Stable
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Random walk
Hurst exponent: 0.502
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
+1.6%5Y+0.9%10Y
Historical drift: +7.5% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.32x
Upside -29.6% vs downside 93.1% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-42.1%
No margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
High (89.3%)
Chance of upside: 0.7% · Avg forecast error: 3.28% · 564 data points
Fundamental FlooriA modelled fundamental reference level based on book value and financial-strength inputs (including ROE, ROCE and debt ratios). It is not a guaranteed price floor: market prices can trade below it when fundamentals change or during stressed conditions.
₹7.01
(93.1% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹76.70
₹125.00
CMP: ₹102.0052% into range18.4% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹71.76 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹10225% ₹9450% ₹8775% ₹79Target ₹72
Gap: 29.6% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd appears overvalued by 29.6% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bullish regime (price above EMA). Volatility is high (47.7% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
102.89
+0.9%
+0.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
100.70
Feb
101.88
Mar
102.61
Apr
103.86
May
104.00
Jun
103.15
Jul
102.15
Aug
101.05
Sep
100.78
Oct
99.24
Nov
101.57
Dec
102.89
2028
108.07
+6.0%
+2.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
104.19
Feb
103.74
Mar
103.50
Apr
105.57
May
106.41
Jun
105.95
Jul
104.71
Aug
103.84
Sep
105.52
Oct
105.05
Nov
106.12
Dec
108.07
2029
110.00
+7.8%
+2.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
106.60
Feb
106.40
Mar
109.11
Apr
110.03
May
108.94
Jun
109.38
Jul
109.79
Aug
110.58
Sep
110.45
Oct
111.10
Nov
110.06
Dec
110.00
2030
110.72
+8.5%
+2.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
110.65
Feb
108.30
Mar
109.02
Apr
106.98
May
109.32
Jun
111.07
Jul
110.72
Aug
111.17
Sep
111.29
Oct
110.94
Nov
111.14
Dec
110.72
2031
110.24
+8.1%
+1.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
107.97
Feb
109.36
Mar
109.85
Apr
110.31
May
109.15
Jun
109.14
Jul
109.37
Aug
110.37
Sep
109.15
Oct
109.43
Nov
109.81
Dec
110.24
2032
109.59
+7.4%
+1.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
109.43
Feb
108.11
Mar
107.92
Apr
108.70
May
107.16
Jun
107.86
Jul
106.69
Aug
106.75
Sep
106.82
Oct
108.84
Nov
110.09
Dec
109.59
2033
113.82
+11.6%
+1.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
110.79
Feb
111.72
Mar
112.21
Apr
113.65
May
112.99
Jun
113.34
Jul
111.81
Aug
112.04
Sep
112.44
Oct
113.80
Nov
114.80
Dec
113.82
2034
115.33
+13.1%
+1.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
115.19
Feb
115.08
Mar
115.17
Apr
113.50
May
114.42
Jun
114.50
Jul
112.98
Aug
112.79
Sep
113.42
Oct
115.15
Nov
115.26
Dec
115.33
2035
115.39
+13.1%
+1.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
115.14
Feb
115.26
Mar
115.71
Apr
115.07
May
114.16
Jun
113.99
Jul
114.38
Aug
115.17
Sep
115.17
Oct
116.51
Nov
116.21
Dec
115.39
2036
112.00
+9.8%
+0.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
115.30
Feb
113.87
Mar
114.36
Apr
114.14
May
113.41
Jun
112.81
Jul
112.70
Aug
111.38
Sep
109.97
Oct
111.18
Nov
112.76
Dec
112.00
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
2.9%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
67.1%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹3.10
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd median forecast is ₹96.77 on 2026-09-16, which is 5.13% lower than today’s price of ₹102.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹94.14 to ₹99.54. Forecast confidence is 89.3%, with probability-up estimate of 0.7%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd?
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd intrinsic value is ₹71.76, which is 29.65% below the current price of ₹102.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd in 2027?
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹102.89 by year-end (range: ₹99.24 to ₹104.00), representing a 0.87% increase from the current price of ₹102.00.
What is the share price target of Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd in 2028?
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹108.07 by year-end (range: ₹103.50 to ₹108.07), representing a 5.95% increase from the current price of ₹102.00.
What is the share price target of Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd in 2029?
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹110.00 by year-end (range: ₹106.40 to ₹111.10), representing a 7.84% increase from the current price of ₹102.00.
Should I buy Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd currently receives a consider reviewing your position research stance from this valuation framework. Intrinsic value is ₹71.76 vs CMP ₹102.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd is ₹7.01, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is a modelled reference level rather than a guaranteed minimum, and the market price can trade below it.
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The log returns are calculated for each consecutive pair of stock prices between the start date (September 16, 2024) and the end date (September 10, 2026).
564 valid data points from the historical price data in the period from September 16, 2024 to September 10, 2026 have been used for the calculations.
Step 2: Calculate the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The EMA is a weighted average of past prices that gives more importance to recent prices. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
Targets are model outputs, not promises. The page should be read together with valuation, profitability, balance-sheet risk, volatility and forecast-error information. Read the forecasting methodology.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
