The next market-day median forecast for Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd (2026-05-18) is ₹874.95 which is 1.69% lower than today’s share price of ₹890.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹821.52–₹933.77. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Fairly Valued
Intrinsic ₹805.87 vs CMP ₹890.00 (-9.5%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▼ Bearish
Price/EMA: 0.855 · EMA(252): ₹1,040.40
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Mean-reverting
Hurst exponent: 0.385
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
-0.3%5Y-1.4%10Y
Historical drift: -12.3% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.10x
Upside -9.5% vs downside 97.2% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-10.4%
No margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
High (89.6%)
Chance of upside: 36.6% · Avg forecast error: 2.35% · 599 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹25.10
(97.2% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹870.00
₹1,221.00
CMP: ₹890.006% into range27.1% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹805.87 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹89025% ₹86950% ₹84875% ₹827Target ₹806
Gap: 9.5% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd is trading near fair value. The stock is currently in a bearish regime (price below EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.38 suggests mean-reverting behavior — extreme moves tend to reverse. Volatility is moderate (39.1% annualized).
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
898.76
+1.0%
+1.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
906.17
Feb
874.11
Mar
874.09
Apr
879.77
May
865.50
Jun
871.08
Jul
880.40
Aug
884.50
Sep
878.14
Oct
887.22
Nov
884.99
Dec
898.76
2028
907.15
+1.9%
+1.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
906.10
Feb
896.78
Mar
895.02
Apr
886.35
May
904.44
Jun
897.24
Jul
894.15
Aug
901.94
Sep
907.70
Oct
911.40
Nov
902.44
Dec
907.15
2029
841.87
-5.4%
-1.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
892.33
Feb
871.26
Mar
873.64
Apr
868.21
May
864.59
Jun
844.72
Jul
846.67
Aug
852.15
Sep
843.60
Oct
824.24
Nov
833.60
Dec
841.87
2030
900.18
+1.1%
+0.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
840.43
Feb
843.29
Mar
866.04
Apr
851.44
May
863.99
Jun
866.43
Jul
885.98
Aug
891.22
Sep
896.26
Oct
900.67
Nov
915.54
Dec
900.18
2031
876.81
-1.5%
-0.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
884.15
Feb
871.22
Mar
872.98
Apr
874.01
May
861.37
Jun
868.37
Jul
883.22
Aug
869.62
Sep
879.69
Oct
880.59
Nov
878.33
Dec
876.81
2032
812.04
-8.8%
-1.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
855.25
Feb
863.14
Mar
851.16
Apr
857.52
May
854.73
Jun
819.88
Jul
834.26
Aug
835.69
Sep
835.71
Oct
833.25
Nov
819.26
Dec
812.04
2033
800.83
-10.0%
-1.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
819.82
Feb
808.32
Mar
805.35
Apr
822.15
May
821.33
Jun
813.63
Jul
821.33
Aug
805.05
Sep
823.28
Oct
812.81
Nov
807.77
Dec
800.83
2034
774.00
-13.0%
-1.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
801.10
Feb
806.96
Mar
809.02
Apr
803.37
May
794.11
Jun
779.07
Jul
781.22
Aug
773.86
Sep
796.12
Oct
787.08
Nov
779.12
Dec
774.00
2035
759.23
-14.7%
-1.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
781.16
Feb
772.06
Mar
766.95
Apr
759.35
May
748.95
Jun
771.94
Jul
761.75
Aug
758.26
Sep
764.21
Oct
776.27
Nov
766.58
Dec
759.23
2036
771.94
-13.3%
-1.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
762.83
Feb
753.01
Mar
750.02
Apr
755.87
May
748.63
Jun
750.71
Jul
750.62
Aug
746.19
Sep
755.27
Oct
767.18
Nov
771.10
Dec
771.94
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
2.21%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
58.9%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹25.05
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd median forecast is ₹874.95 on 2026-05-18, which is 1.69% lower than today’s price of ₹890.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹821.52 to ₹933.77. Forecast confidence is 89.6%, with probability-up estimate of 36.6%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd?
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd intrinsic value is ₹805.87, which is 9.45% below the current price of ₹890.00. This suggests the stock is currently fairly valued.
What is the share price target of Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd in 2027?
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹898.76 by year-end (range: ₹865.50 to ₹906.17), representing a 0.98% increase from the current price of ₹890.00.
What is the share price target of Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd in 2028?
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹907.15 by year-end (range: ₹886.35 to ₹911.40), representing a 1.93% increase from the current price of ₹890.00.
What is the share price target of Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd in 2029?
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹841.87 by year-end (range: ₹824.24 to ₹892.33), representing a -5.41% decrease from the current price of ₹890.00.
Should I buy Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd appears to be a hold candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹805.87 vs CMP ₹890.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd is ₹25.10, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
