The next market-day median forecast for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd (2026-05-27) is ₹125.41 which is 1.96% higher than today’s share price of ₹123.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹111.79–₹140.06. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Undervalued
Intrinsic ₹190.71 vs CMP ₹123.00 (+55.0%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▼ Bearish
Price/EMA: 0.874 · EMA(252): ₹140.72
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
49.2% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Rising (recent > historical)
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Random walk
Hurst exponent: 0.459
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
+0.2%5Y+0.5%10Y
Historical drift: -19.4% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
0.56x
Upside +55% vs downside 97.5% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
+35.5%
Strong margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
High (87.4%)
Chance of upside: 57.9% · Avg forecast error: 2.21% · 594 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹3.04
(97.5% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹118.00
₹162.00
CMP: ₹123.0011% into range24.1% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹190.71 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹12325% ₹14050% ₹15775% ₹174Target ₹191
Gap: 55.0% upward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd appears undervalued by 55.0% based on fundamentals. The stock is currently in a bearish regime (price below EMA). Volatility is high (49.2% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
122.28
-0.6%
-0.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
123.49
Feb
122.20
Mar
120.02
Apr
121.08
May
122.29
Jun
122.82
Jul
122.84
Aug
123.20
Sep
123.99
Oct
123.81
Nov
123.87
Dec
122.28
2028
123.05
+0.0%
+0.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
122.31
Feb
121.58
Mar
121.32
Apr
121.57
May
120.60
Jun
121.77
Jul
122.10
Aug
120.97
Sep
121.64
Oct
121.88
Nov
121.41
Dec
123.05
2029
127.11
+3.3%
+1.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
123.18
Feb
122.67
Mar
123.92
Apr
124.82
May
123.98
Jun
125.21
Jul
125.35
Aug
126.34
Sep
125.85
Oct
127.87
Nov
126.64
Dec
127.11
2030
125.90
+2.4%
+0.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
126.85
Feb
129.52
Mar
130.29
Apr
129.97
May
127.64
Jun
126.89
Jul
126.74
Aug
126.69
Sep
125.04
Oct
125.15
Nov
124.78
Dec
125.90
2031
124.46
+1.2%
+0.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
126.12
Feb
126.46
Mar
128.06
Apr
127.93
May
128.24
Jun
128.28
Jul
126.55
Aug
125.45
Sep
125.71
Oct
126.03
Nov
124.21
Dec
124.46
2032
126.86
+3.1%
+0.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
125.47
Feb
127.15
Mar
126.69
Apr
127.11
May
126.71
Jun
126.57
Jul
125.55
Aug
124.68
Sep
125.97
Oct
127.31
Nov
127.05
Dec
126.86
2033
131.66
+7.0%
+1.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
126.43
Feb
127.99
Mar
128.06
Apr
128.87
May
128.19
Jun
129.33
Jul
129.09
Aug
128.61
Sep
130.63
Oct
130.36
Nov
131.11
Dec
131.66
2034
138.90
+12.9%
+1.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
132.97
Feb
134.41
Mar
133.88
Apr
135.56
May
135.80
Jun
137.06
Jul
138.86
Aug
139.63
Sep
140.11
Oct
139.32
Nov
138.62
Dec
138.90
2035
136.20
+10.7%
+1.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
140.88
Feb
141.05
Mar
141.86
Apr
141.85
May
140.20
Jun
138.99
Jul
139.07
Aug
138.33
Sep
137.77
Oct
137.04
Nov
135.97
Dec
136.20
2036
129.87
+5.6%
+0.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
135.73
Feb
135.74
Mar
133.47
Apr
132.92
May
132.73
Jun
134.59
Jul
135.38
Aug
133.61
Sep
132.71
Oct
133.31
Nov
131.47
Dec
129.87
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
3.68%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
68.6%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹5.90
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd median forecast is ₹125.41 on 2026-05-27, which is 1.96% higher than today’s price of ₹123.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹111.79 to ₹140.06. Forecast confidence is 87.4%, with probability-up estimate of 57.9%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd intrinsic value is ₹190.71, which is 55.05% above the current price of ₹123.00. This suggests the stock is currently undervalued.
What is the share price target of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd in 2027?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹122.28 by year-end (range: ₹120.02 to ₹123.99), representing a -0.59% decrease from the current price of ₹123.00.
What is the share price target of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd in 2028?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹123.05 by year-end (range: ₹120.60 to ₹123.05), representing a 0.04% increase from the current price of ₹123.00.
What is the share price target of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd in 2029?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹127.11 by year-end (range: ₹122.67 to ₹127.87), representing a 3.34% increase from the current price of ₹123.00.
Should I buy Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd appears to be a consider buying candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹190.71 vs CMP ₹123.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd is ₹3.04, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
