The next market-day median forecast for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd (2026-07-13) is ₹123.08 which is 0.07% higher than today’s share price of ₹123.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹106.89–₹141.44. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Undervalued
Intrinsic ₹141.79 vs CMP ₹123.00 (+15.3%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▼ Bearish
Price/EMA: 0.895 · EMA(252): ₹137.37
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
61% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Rising (recent > historical)
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Mean-reverting
Hurst exponent: 0.407
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
+1.3%5Y+2.8%10Y
Historical drift: -14.4% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
0.16x
Upside +15.3% vs downside 97.5% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
+13.3%
Moderate margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
Moderate (69.6%)
Chance of upside: 50.4% · Avg forecast error: 8.14% · 599 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹3.04
(97.5% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹118.00
₹168.00
CMP: ₹123.0010% into range26.8% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹141.79 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹12325% ₹12850% ₹13275% ₹137Target ₹142
Gap: 15.3% upward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd appears undervalued by 15.3% based on fundamentals. The stock is currently in a bearish regime (price below EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.41 suggests mean-reverting behavior — extreme moves tend to reverse. Volatility is high (61% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
115.80
-5.9%
-5.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
123.97
Feb
122.17
Mar
120.32
Apr
120.03
May
119.51
Jun
117.84
Jul
117.63
Aug
120.27
Sep
118.30
Oct
117.50
Nov
116.24
Dec
115.80
2028
121.44
-1.3%
-0.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
119.76
Feb
119.56
Mar
119.01
Apr
115.89
May
116.60
Jun
115.33
Jul
119.33
Aug
120.25
Sep
121.63
Oct
119.51
Nov
120.16
Dec
121.44
2029
127.53
+3.7%
+1.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
122.65
Feb
123.04
Mar
123.77
Apr
125.95
May
128.73
Jun
127.89
Jul
125.75
Aug
127.97
Sep
129.49
Oct
129.89
Nov
128.48
Dec
127.53
2030
132.34
+7.6%
+1.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
129.16
Feb
126.99
Mar
127.45
Apr
125.89
May
126.78
Jun
129.66
Jul
130.75
Aug
131.23
Sep
128.76
Oct
130.18
Nov
128.63
Dec
132.34
2031
131.51
+6.9%
+1.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
133.71
Feb
133.30
Mar
133.43
Apr
131.18
May
131.39
Jun
129.03
Jul
129.84
Aug
130.45
Sep
126.86
Oct
124.42
Nov
128.77
Dec
131.51
2032
145.91
+18.6%
+2.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
134.92
Feb
135.95
Mar
136.64
Apr
136.21
May
135.58
Jun
132.50
Jul
134.48
Aug
136.10
Sep
139.96
Oct
141.34
Nov
142.51
Dec
145.91
2033
139.50
+13.4%
+1.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
144.55
Feb
145.53
Mar
145.35
Apr
140.64
May
142.12
Jun
142.98
Jul
142.72
Aug
146.01
Sep
144.74
Oct
142.31
Nov
143.14
Dec
139.50
2034
139.12
+13.1%
+1.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
139.27
Feb
140.01
Mar
138.52
Apr
134.55
May
137.80
Jun
134.60
Jul
134.01
Aug
136.57
Sep
137.83
Oct
138.60
Nov
138.97
Dec
139.12
2035
158.26
+28.7%
+2.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
141.77
Feb
141.53
Mar
140.69
Apr
142.91
May
146.32
Jun
149.42
Jul
152.55
Aug
149.56
Sep
152.78
Oct
152.36
Nov
154.02
Dec
158.26
2036
162.01
+31.7%
+2.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
156.93
Feb
153.52
Mar
155.26
Apr
157.07
May
155.79
Jun
156.58
Jul
159.08
Aug
156.39
Sep
157.03
Oct
157.68
Nov
159.22
Dec
162.01
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
3.73%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
68.7%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹5.97
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd median forecast is ₹123.08 on 2026-07-13, which is 0.07% higher than today’s price of ₹123.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹106.89 to ₹141.44. Forecast confidence is 69.6%, with probability-up estimate of 50.4%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd intrinsic value is ₹141.79, which is 15.28% above the current price of ₹123.00. This suggests the stock is currently undervalued.
What is the share price target of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd in 2027?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹115.80 by year-end (range: ₹115.80 to ₹123.97), representing a -5.85% decrease from the current price of ₹123.00.
What is the share price target of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd in 2028?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹121.44 by year-end (range: ₹115.33 to ₹121.63), representing a -1.27% decrease from the current price of ₹123.00.
What is the share price target of Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd in 2029?
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹127.53 by year-end (range: ₹122.65 to ₹129.89), representing a 3.68% increase from the current price of ₹123.00.
Should I buy Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd appears to be a consider buying candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹141.79 vs CMP ₹123.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd is ₹3.04, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
