ICDS Ltd Share Price Target from 2025 to 2035: Expert Forecast & Analysis
ICDS Ltd Stock Price Forecast & Analysis: Predicted vs Actual Trends
ICDS Ltd - Tomorrow's Share Price Probability Distribution
How are the Share Price Targets for ICDS Ltd Calculated?
We calculate the share price targets for ICDS Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
\[ \text{Log Return} = \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) \]
Where:
- Si: Stock price at time i
- Si-1: Stock price at time i-1
The log returns are calculated for each consecutive pair of stock prices between the start date (October 18, 2024) and the end date (April 4, 2025).
200 valid data points from the historical price data in the period from October 18, 2024 to April 4, 2025 have been used for the calculations.
Step 2: Calculate the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The EMA is a weighted average of past prices that gives more importance to recent prices. It is calculated as follows:
\[ EMA = \alpha \times P_{t} + (1 - \alpha) \times EMA_{t-1} \]
Where:
- α: Smoothing factor \(\frac{2}{n+1}\)
- Pt: Current stock price at time t
- EMAt-1: EMA from the previous time step
Step 3: Calculate the Drift (Average Growth Rate)
The drift is the average rate at which the stock price grows over time. It is calculated as the mean of the log returns:
\[ \mu = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) \]
For ICDS Ltd, the drift (average growth rate) is -0.02%.
Step 4: Calculate the Volatility
The volatility measures the extent of price fluctuations. It is calculated as the standard deviation of the log returns:
\[ \sigma = \sqrt{ \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \left( \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) - \mu \right)^2 } \]
Step 5: Calculate the Hurst Exponent
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for ICDS Ltd
The predicted price for tomorrow is derived using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) formula with drift, volatility, and a random factor to simulate market movements.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for ICDS Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
Disclaimer
The projected stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance of securities is not indicative of future results. Getaka Financial Technology is not responsible for any investment decisions made on the basis of this information. Investors are advised to seek independent financial advice from a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Please read all associated offer documents and terms carefully before investing.