The next market-day median forecast for ITC Ltd (2026-08-17) is ₹284.79 which is 5.70% lower than today’s share price of ₹302.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹284.79–₹284.79. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
ITC Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹247.53 vs CMP ₹302.00 (-18.0%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▼ Bearish
Price/EMA: 0.942 · EMA(252): ₹320.55
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Mean-reverting
Hurst exponent: 0.366
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
+2.9%5Y+0.8%10Y
Historical drift: -13.8% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.18x
Upside -18% vs downside 97.3% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-22%
No margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
High (90.8%)
Chance of upside: 0.0% · Avg forecast error: 3.36% · 600 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹8.28
(97.3% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹282.00
₹403.00
CMP: ₹302.0017% into range25.1% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹247.53 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹30225% ₹28850% ₹27575% ₹261Target ₹248
Gap: 18.0% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: ITC Ltd appears overvalued by 18.0% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bearish regime (price below EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.37 suggests mean-reverting behavior — extreme moves tend to reverse. Volatility is moderate (29.3% annualized).
ITC Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
306.88
+1.6%
+1.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
302.01
Feb
301.88
Mar
311.96
Apr
312.63
May
314.73
Jun
314.90
Jul
309.47
Aug
305.54
Sep
302.02
Oct
303.23
Nov
304.79
Dec
306.88
2028
313.85
+3.9%
+1.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
307.96
Feb
306.28
Mar
300.90
Apr
304.87
May
305.37
Jun
305.86
Jul
305.29
Aug
312.14
Sep
310.60
Oct
308.40
Nov
310.13
Dec
313.85
2029
322.59
+6.8%
+2.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
311.99
Feb
317.47
Mar
317.33
Apr
316.40
May
315.59
Jun
314.71
Jul
308.18
Aug
310.12
Sep
315.14
Oct
318.38
Nov
322.60
Dec
322.59
2030
335.11
+11.0%
+2.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
329.76
Feb
325.16
Mar
324.25
Apr
319.88
May
318.41
Jun
325.08
Jul
323.47
Aug
329.96
Sep
329.75
Oct
329.63
Nov
333.79
Dec
335.11
2031
349.20
+15.6%
+2.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
335.50
Feb
339.31
Mar
339.53
Apr
341.67
May
344.23
Jun
342.57
Jul
346.43
Aug
342.38
Sep
341.95
Oct
341.00
Nov
347.91
Dec
349.20
2032
323.96
+7.3%
+1.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
348.34
Feb
344.90
Mar
337.65
Apr
337.69
May
337.08
Jun
333.80
Jul
334.83
Aug
329.40
Sep
329.64
Oct
335.27
Nov
333.87
Dec
323.96
2033
317.52
+5.1%
+0.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
322.43
Feb
323.94
Mar
322.51
Apr
326.22
May
327.22
Jun
326.08
Jul
317.75
Aug
313.92
Sep
318.26
Oct
318.57
Nov
316.03
Dec
317.52
2034
312.85
+3.6%
+0.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
318.29
Feb
313.12
Mar
313.34
Apr
313.05
May
305.57
Jun
302.51
Jul
303.05
Aug
303.72
Sep
300.40
Oct
305.79
Nov
307.82
Dec
312.85
2035
332.94
+10.2%
+1.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
316.53
Feb
318.59
Mar
317.64
Apr
316.63
May
310.07
Jun
312.45
Jul
314.51
Aug
320.23
Sep
329.60
Oct
333.54
Nov
338.27
Dec
332.94
2036
327.87
+8.6%
+0.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
331.81
Feb
330.23
Mar
328.95
Apr
328.00
May
331.68
Jun
329.07
Jul
327.05
Aug
329.99
Sep
331.44
Oct
328.63
Nov
327.13
Dec
327.87
ITC Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
1.47%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
55.2%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹5.53
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will ITC Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
ITC Ltd median forecast is ₹284.79 on 2026-08-17, which is 5.70% lower than today’s price of ₹302.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹284.79 to ₹284.79. Forecast confidence is 90.8%, with probability-up estimate of 0.0%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of ITC Ltd?
ITC Ltd intrinsic value is ₹247.53, which is 18.04% below the current price of ₹302.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of ITC Ltd in 2027?
ITC Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹306.88 by year-end (range: ₹301.88 to ₹314.90), representing a 1.62% increase from the current price of ₹302.00.
What is the share price target of ITC Ltd in 2028?
ITC Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹313.85 by year-end (range: ₹300.90 to ₹313.85), representing a 3.92% increase from the current price of ₹302.00.
What is the share price target of ITC Ltd in 2029?
ITC Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹322.59 by year-end (range: ₹308.18 to ₹322.60), representing a 6.82% increase from the current price of ₹302.00.
Should I buy ITC Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, ITC Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹247.53 vs CMP ₹302.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for ITC Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for ITC Ltd is ₹8.28, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
ITC Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for ITC Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for ITC Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for ITC Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
