The next market-day median forecast for ITI Ltd (2026-08-28) is ₹217.60 which is 15.00% lower than today’s share price of ₹256.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹217.60–₹217.60. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
ITI Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹23.90 vs CMP ₹256.00 (-90.7%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▼ Bearish
Price/EMA: 0.945 · EMA(252): ₹270.88
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
52.6% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Stable
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Mean-reverting
Hurst exponent: 0.447
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
-0.5%5Y-0.8%10Y
Historical drift: -2.4% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.93x
Upside -90.7% vs downside 97.4% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-971.1%
No margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
Moderate (47.6%)
Chance of upside: 0.0% · Avg forecast error: 18.23% · 587 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹6.54
(97.4% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹239.00
₹314.00
CMP: ₹256.0023% into range18.5% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹23.90 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹25625% ₹19850% ₹14075% ₹82Target ₹24
Gap: 90.7% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: ITI Ltd appears overvalued by 90.7% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bearish regime (price below EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.45 suggests mean-reverting behavior — extreme moves tend to reverse. Volatility is high (52.6% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
ITI Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
245.44
-4.1%
-4.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
255.97
Feb
256.72
Mar
267.68
Apr
266.40
May
266.07
Jun
262.15
Jul
258.91
Aug
256.25
Sep
253.07
Oct
250.70
Nov
248.27
Dec
245.44
2028
237.22
-7.3%
-3.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
246.96
Feb
245.45
Mar
240.23
Apr
240.82
May
235.84
Jun
231.91
Jul
236.87
Aug
236.79
Sep
243.44
Oct
244.77
Nov
242.56
Dec
237.22
2029
237.74
-7.1%
-2.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
237.62
Feb
235.37
Mar
240.17
Apr
239.29
May
239.86
Jun
240.22
Jul
239.11
Aug
237.34
Sep
235.44
Oct
239.85
Nov
238.70
Dec
237.74
2030
244.68
-4.4%
-1.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
239.22
Feb
241.12
Mar
248.03
Apr
253.16
May
249.29
Jun
253.55
Jul
253.54
Aug
255.78
Sep
248.65
Oct
249.77
Nov
243.88
Dec
244.68
2031
249.22
-2.6%
-0.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
243.55
Feb
249.33
Mar
251.75
Apr
244.38
May
239.93
Jun
239.67
Jul
237.79
Aug
239.05
Sep
242.06
Oct
245.68
Nov
242.28
Dec
249.22
2032
226.19
-11.6%
-2.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
252.28
Feb
248.35
Mar
243.25
Apr
242.62
May
238.33
Jun
238.52
Jul
235.83
Aug
230.46
Sep
230.07
Oct
229.73
Nov
228.56
Dec
226.19
2033
229.17
-10.5%
-1.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
228.09
Feb
231.15
Mar
232.67
Apr
235.39
May
235.69
Jun
229.06
Jul
230.66
Aug
228.85
Sep
225.93
Oct
230.18
Nov
231.64
Dec
229.17
2034
232.06
-9.4%
-1.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
228.25
Feb
232.77
Mar
232.81
Apr
233.54
May
229.58
Jun
235.11
Jul
236.55
Aug
234.37
Sep
233.25
Oct
237.08
Nov
233.29
Dec
232.06
2035
221.03
-13.7%
-1.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
230.67
Feb
229.57
Mar
230.51
Apr
235.40
May
230.82
Jun
233.04
Jul
229.59
Aug
226.78
Sep
222.89
Oct
220.55
Nov
223.04
Dec
221.03
2036
237.13
-7.4%
-0.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
226.60
Feb
228.64
Mar
225.52
Apr
230.22
May
234.39
Jun
235.14
Jul
232.41
Aug
234.69
Sep
233.14
Oct
232.96
Nov
237.42
Dec
237.13
ITI Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
6.9%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
52.1%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹19.82
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will ITI Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
ITI Ltd median forecast is ₹217.60 on 2026-08-28, which is 15.00% lower than today’s price of ₹256.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹217.60 to ₹217.60. Forecast confidence is 47.6%, with probability-up estimate of 0.0%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of ITI Ltd?
ITI Ltd intrinsic value is ₹23.90, which is 90.66% below the current price of ₹256.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of ITI Ltd in 2027?
ITI Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹245.44 by year-end (range: ₹245.44 to ₹267.68), representing a -4.13% decrease from the current price of ₹256.00.
What is the share price target of ITI Ltd in 2028?
ITI Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹237.22 by year-end (range: ₹231.91 to ₹246.96), representing a -7.34% decrease from the current price of ₹256.00.
What is the share price target of ITI Ltd in 2029?
ITI Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹237.74 by year-end (range: ₹235.37 to ₹240.22), representing a -7.13% decrease from the current price of ₹256.00.
Should I buy ITI Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, ITI Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹23.90 vs CMP ₹256.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for ITI Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for ITI Ltd is ₹6.54, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
ITI Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for ITI Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The log returns are calculated for each consecutive pair of stock prices between the start date (February 14, 2025) and the end date (August 27, 2026).
587 valid data points from the historical price data in the period from February 14, 2025 to August 27, 2026 have been used for the calculations.
Step 2: Calculate the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The EMA is a weighted average of past prices that gives more importance to recent prices. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for ITI Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for ITI Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
