The predicted share price (Closing Price) for NTPC Ltd for tomorrow (2026-04-29) is ₹367.64 which is 0.72% higher than today’s share price of ₹365.00
NTPC Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹280.72 vs CMP ₹365.00 (-23.1%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▲ Bullish
Price/EMA: 1.025 · EMA(252): ₹356.05
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Random walk
Hurst exponent: 0.455
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
-0.5%5Y+0.4%10Y
Historical drift: +3.5% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.24x
Upside -23.1% vs downside 98% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-30%
No margin
Model ConfidenceiShows how reliable our predictions are for this stock. Based on the model's average prediction error over the last 90 days. Low error = high confidence. Also shows data coverage — more data points over longer periods produce more reliable projections. The model self-learns by adjusting parameters every 7 days.
Moderate
Avg error: 4.94% · 589 data points over 463 days
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹7.30
(98% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹318.00
₹402.00
CMP: ₹365.0056% into range9.2% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows how long the model expects the stock price to take to converge toward its intrinsic value. The model uses a mathematical convergence rate that pulls the projected price toward intrinsic value gradually. Milestones show the expected price at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence means the price may decline toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹280.72 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹36525% ₹34450% ₹32375% ₹302Target ₹281
Gap: 23.1% downward · Model convergence rate: 5.0 years
What this means: NTPC Ltd appears overvalued by 23.1% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bullish regime (price above EMA). Volatility is moderate (26.8% annualized).
NTPC Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
361.21
-1.0%
-1.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
362.46
Feb
367.32
Mar
364.68
Apr
360.30
May
356.39
Jun
357.06
Jul
355.80
Aug
351.60
Sep
361.11
Oct
362.58
Nov
361.25
Dec
361.21
2028
354.88
-2.8%
-1.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
363.77
Feb
364.36
Mar
364.43
Apr
359.95
May
359.47
Jun
362.35
Jul
360.08
Aug
361.51
Sep
361.34
Oct
358.25
Nov
356.15
Dec
354.88
2029
370.70
+1.6%
+0.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
357.00
Feb
358.38
Mar
359.71
Apr
363.72
May
368.76
Jun
364.63
Jul
365.39
Aug
366.26
Sep
365.79
Oct
363.34
Nov
363.59
Dec
370.70
2030
359.77
-1.4%
-0.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
369.27
Feb
370.20
Mar
366.36
Apr
366.53
May
366.78
Jun
368.99
Jul
366.92
Aug
365.51
Sep
368.58
Oct
365.25
Nov
360.71
Dec
359.77
2031
356.48
-2.3%
-0.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
363.22
Feb
361.80
Mar
360.55
Apr
360.88
May
362.25
Jun
360.50
Jul
363.32
Aug
361.15
Sep
361.15
Oct
361.42
Nov
359.01
Dec
356.48
2032
353.63
-3.1%
-0.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
357.63
Feb
362.78
Mar
360.65
Apr
356.54
May
359.55
Jun
357.82
Jul
359.24
Aug
355.75
Sep
352.52
Oct
354.03
Nov
354.03
Dec
353.63
2033
369.52
+1.2%
+0.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
355.60
Feb
355.51
Mar
355.73
Apr
355.10
May
357.90
Jun
360.70
Jul
363.73
Aug
364.11
Sep
364.27
Oct
366.78
Nov
366.75
Dec
369.52
2034
368.16
+0.9%
+0.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
367.45
Feb
368.42
Mar
367.38
Apr
367.32
May
369.15
Jun
369.93
Jul
371.05
Aug
372.61
Sep
369.69
Oct
371.62
Nov
368.66
Dec
368.16
2035
378.61
+3.7%
+0.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
371.70
Feb
373.10
Mar
373.89
Apr
372.40
May
374.69
Jun
375.64
Jul
375.23
Aug
377.27
Sep
377.57
Oct
379.28
Nov
378.42
Dec
378.61
2036
378.66
+3.7%
+0.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
379.24
Feb
380.55
Mar
380.70
Apr
381.48
May
381.04
Jun
384.22
Jul
382.25
Aug
384.81
Sep
384.29
Oct
385.48
Nov
383.10
Dec
378.66
NTPC Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
1.76%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
60.7%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹6.28
PredictionsiTotal number of daily predictions made for this stock. More predictions = more data for accuracy metrics. The model self-learns and adjusts its parameters every 7 days, so accuracy typically improves over time.
NTPC Ltd share price is expected to increase to ₹367.64 on 2026-04-29, which is 0.72% higher than today's price of ₹365.00. This prediction is based on our AI-powered GFBM model.
What is the intrinsic value of NTPC Ltd?
NTPC Ltd intrinsic value is ₹280.72, which is 23.09% below the current price of ₹365.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of NTPC Ltd in 2027?
NTPC Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹361.21 by year-end (range: ₹351.60 to ₹367.32), representing a -1.04% decrease from the current price of ₹365.00.
What is the share price target of NTPC Ltd in 2028?
NTPC Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹354.88 by year-end (range: ₹354.88 to ₹364.43), representing a -2.77% decrease from the current price of ₹365.00.
What is the share price target of NTPC Ltd in 2029?
NTPC Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹370.70 by year-end (range: ₹357.00 to ₹370.70), representing a 1.56% increase from the current price of ₹365.00.
Should I buy NTPC Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, NTPC Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹280.72 vs CMP ₹365.00. This is not investment advice — consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making investment decisions.
What is the fundamental floor price for NTPC Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for NTPC Ltd is ₹7.30, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
NTPC Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for NTPC Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for NTPC Ltd
The predicted price for tomorrow is derived using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) formula with drift, volatility, and a random factor to simulate market movements.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for NTPC Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance of securities is not indicative of future results. Getaka Financial Technology is not responsible for any investment decisions made on the basis of this information. Investors are advised to seek independent financial advice from a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Please read all associated offer documents and terms carefully before investing.
