← National Aluminium Company Ltd Intrinsic Value & Fundamental Analysis
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NATIONALUM Share Price Target 2026, 2030, 2035 | Updated May 2026

National Aluminium Company Ltd share price today: ₹408.00  |  Tomorrow's prediction: ₹380.03 (2026-05-10)  |  Intrinsic value: ₹322.78  |  2027 target: ₹424.90  |  2036 target: ₹416.12

The predicted share price (Closing Price) for National Aluminium Company Ltd for tomorrow (2026-05-10) is ₹380.03 which is 6.86% lower than today’s share price of ₹408.00

National Aluminium Company Ltd – Investor Insights

Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹322.78 vs CMP ₹408.00 (-20.9%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▲ Bullish
Price/EMA: 1.214 · EMA(252): ₹336.16
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
41.7% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Rising (recent > historical)
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Trending (persistent)
Hurst exponent: 0.559
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
+0.1% 5Y   +0.2% 10Y
Historical drift: +34.5% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.21x
Upside -20.9% vs downside 98% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-26.4%
No margin
Model ConfidenceiShows how reliable our predictions are for this stock. Based on the model's average prediction error over the last 90 days. Low error = high confidence. Also shows data coverage — more data points over longer periods produce more reliable projections. The model self-learns by adjusting parameters every 7 days.
Moderate
Avg error: 2.65% · 594 data points over 445 days
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹8.16
(98% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹225.00
₹437.00
CMP: ₹408.0086% into range6.6% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
▲ 21 months up (75%)▼ 7 months down
Avg: +2.97%/moBest: +19.7%Worst: -15.1%Months analysed: 28
Convergence TimelineiShows how long the model expects the stock price to take to converge toward its intrinsic value. The model uses a mathematical convergence rate that pulls the projected price toward intrinsic value gradually. Milestones show the expected price at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence means the price may decline toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹322.78 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now
₹40825%
₹38750%
₹36575%
₹344Target
₹323
Gap: 20.9% downward · Model convergence rate: 5.0 years
What this means: National Aluminium Company Ltd appears overvalued by 20.9% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bullish regime (price above EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.56 indicates trending behavior — recent price momentum is likely to persist. Volatility is high (41.7% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
National Aluminium Company Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
YearProjected Price (₹)Growth %CAGR
2027 424.90+4.1%+4.1%
2028 418.28+2.5%+1.3%
2029 415.38+1.8%+0.6%
2030 423.20+3.7%+0.9%
2031 409.17+0.3%+0.1%
2032 425.92+4.4%+0.7%
2033 426.46+4.5%+0.6%
2034 428.94+5.1%+0.6%
2035 420.78+3.1%+0.3%
2036 416.12+2.0%+0.2%

National Aluminium Company Ltd Stock Price Analysis

Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
2.19%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
67.9%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹5.24
PredictionsiTotal number of daily predictions made for this stock. More predictions = more data for accuracy metrics. The model self-learns and adjusts its parameters every 7 days, so accuracy typically improves over time.
393

National Aluminium Company Ltd – Historical Performance vs Predictions

National Aluminium Company Ltd – 3-Month Price Forecast

90-day target: ₹418.02|Range: ₹324.37 – ₹538.70|By: 08 Aug 2026

National Aluminium Company Ltd Tomorrow's Share Price Probability Distribution

National Aluminium Company Ltd Share Price Target – Frequently Asked Questions

Will National Aluminium Company Ltd share price increase tomorrow?
National Aluminium Company Ltd share price is expected to decrease to ₹380.03 on 2026-05-10, which is 6.86% lower than today's price of ₹408.00. This prediction is based on our AI-powered GFBM model.
What is the intrinsic value of National Aluminium Company Ltd?
National Aluminium Company Ltd intrinsic value is ₹322.78, which is 20.89% below the current price of ₹408.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of National Aluminium Company Ltd in 2027?
National Aluminium Company Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹424.90 by year-end (range: ₹406.51 to ₹424.90), representing a 4.14% increase from the current price of ₹408.00.
What is the share price target of National Aluminium Company Ltd in 2028?
National Aluminium Company Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹418.28 by year-end (range: ₹418.19 to ₹430.95), representing a 2.52% increase from the current price of ₹408.00.
What is the share price target of National Aluminium Company Ltd in 2029?
National Aluminium Company Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹415.38 by year-end (range: ₹411.27 to ₹417.35), representing a 1.81% increase from the current price of ₹408.00.
Should I buy National Aluminium Company Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, National Aluminium Company Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹322.78 vs CMP ₹408.00. This is not investment advice — consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making investment decisions.
What is the fundamental floor price for National Aluminium Company Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for National Aluminium Company Ltd is ₹8.16, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.

National Aluminium Company Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets

We calculate the share price targets for National Aluminium Company Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.

Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns

The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:

\[ \text{Log Return} = \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) \]

Where:

  • Si: Stock price at time i
  • Si-1: Stock price at time i-1

The log returns are calculated for each consecutive pair of stock prices between the start date (February 17, 2025) and the end date (May 8, 2026).

594 valid data points from the historical price data in the period from February 17, 2025 to May 8, 2026 have been used for the calculations.

Step 2: Calculate the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

The EMA is a weighted average of past prices that gives more importance to recent prices. It is calculated as follows:

\[ EMA = \alpha \times P_{t} + (1 - \alpha) \times EMA_{t-1} \]

Where:

  • α: Smoothing factor \(\frac{2}{n+1}\)
  • Pt: Current stock price at time t
  • EMAt-1: EMA from the previous time step

Step 3: Calculate the Drift (Average Growth Rate)

The drift is the average rate at which the stock price grows over time. It is calculated as the mean of the log returns:

\[ \mu = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) \]

For National Aluminium Company Ltd, the drift (average growth rate) is 0.14%.

Step 4: Calculate the Volatility

The volatility measures the extent of price fluctuations. It is calculated as the standard deviation of the log returns:

\[ \sigma = \sqrt{ \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \left( \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) - \mu \right)^2 } \]

Step 5: Calculate the Hurst Exponent

The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:

\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]

Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA

The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.

Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for National Aluminium Company Ltd

The predicted price for tomorrow is derived using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) formula with drift, volatility, and a random factor to simulate market movements.

Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years

The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.

Conclusion

Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for National Aluminium Company Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.

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Disclaimer

The projected stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance of securities is not indicative of future results. Getaka Financial Technology is not responsible for any investment decisions made on the basis of this information. Investors are advised to seek independent financial advice from a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Please read all associated offer documents and terms carefully before investing.