The next market-day median forecast for Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd (2026-08-05) is ₹92.84 which is 4.90% higher than today’s share price of ₹88.50 with a 10–90% range of ₹90.90–₹94.73. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Undervalued
Intrinsic ₹123.11 vs CMP ₹88.50 (+39.1%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▼ Bearish
Price/EMA: 0.864 · EMA(252): ₹102.39
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
60% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Falling (recent < historical)
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Trending (persistent)
Hurst exponent: 0.558
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
+0.3%5Y+0.3%10Y
Historical drift: -52.5% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
0.43x
Upside +39.1% vs downside 92% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
+28.1%
Strong margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
High (89.7%)
Chance of upside: 99.6% · Avg forecast error: 3.32% · 480 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹7.10
(92% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹78.60
₹122.00
CMP: ₹88.5023% into range27.5% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹123.11 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹8925% ₹9750% ₹10675% ₹114Target ₹123
Gap: 39.1% upward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd appears undervalued by 39.1% based on fundamentals. The stock is currently in a bearish regime (price below EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.56 indicates trending behavior — recent price momentum is likely to persist. Volatility is high (60% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
90.08
+1.8%
+1.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
88.21
Feb
87.93
Mar
87.56
Apr
87.73
May
86.98
Jun
87.20
Jul
87.60
Aug
86.88
Sep
87.26
Oct
88.55
Nov
89.00
Dec
90.08
2028
91.01
+2.8%
+1.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
90.65
Feb
89.49
Mar
89.10
Apr
90.14
May
91.23
Jun
91.37
Jul
91.89
Aug
91.63
Sep
91.57
Oct
92.02
Nov
91.19
Dec
91.01
2029
90.93
+2.7%
+0.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
90.69
Feb
90.51
Mar
91.63
Apr
91.29
May
91.80
Jun
90.69
Jul
91.18
Aug
91.69
Sep
91.53
Oct
92.59
Nov
91.72
Dec
90.93
2030
89.10
+0.7%
+0.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
90.31
Feb
90.37
Mar
90.86
Apr
89.85
May
90.17
Jun
89.95
Jul
90.63
Aug
90.23
Sep
89.53
Oct
89.83
Nov
89.64
Dec
89.10
2031
89.91
+1.6%
+0.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
88.85
Feb
89.17
Mar
89.50
Apr
89.42
May
88.38
Jun
88.66
Jul
88.91
Aug
88.28
Sep
89.19
Oct
88.70
Nov
89.40
Dec
89.91
2032
92.87
+4.9%
+0.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
90.17
Feb
89.92
Mar
90.94
Apr
90.73
May
91.29
Jun
92.05
Jul
92.34
Aug
91.85
Sep
91.45
Oct
92.39
Nov
92.26
Dec
92.87
2033
91.16
+3.0%
+0.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
93.01
Feb
92.28
Mar
92.15
Apr
92.01
May
91.69
Jun
91.51
Jul
91.93
Aug
91.35
Sep
90.92
Oct
90.25
Nov
90.88
Dec
91.16
2034
93.21
+5.3%
+0.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
91.47
Feb
90.96
Mar
90.90
Apr
91.20
May
91.35
Jun
92.46
Jul
93.09
Aug
92.77
Sep
92.17
Oct
92.36
Nov
92.58
Dec
93.21
2035
93.79
+6.0%
+0.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
93.28
Feb
92.92
Mar
94.22
Apr
93.69
May
94.20
Jun
94.31
Jul
93.88
Aug
93.46
Sep
93.81
Oct
93.40
Nov
93.76
Dec
93.79
2036
91.43
+3.3%
+0.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
95.05
Feb
94.85
Mar
93.90
Apr
93.60
May
93.34
Jun
93.51
Jul
93.78
Aug
93.34
Sep
92.87
Oct
93.12
Nov
91.98
Dec
91.43
Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
3.82%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
67.2%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹5.51
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd median forecast is ₹92.84 on 2026-08-05, which is 4.90% higher than today’s price of ₹88.50. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹90.90 to ₹94.73. Forecast confidence is 89.7%, with probability-up estimate of 99.6%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd?
Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd intrinsic value is ₹123.11, which is 39.11% above the current price of ₹88.50. This suggests the stock is currently undervalued.
What is the share price target of Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd in 2027?
Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹90.08 by year-end (range: ₹86.88 to ₹90.08), representing a 1.79% increase from the current price of ₹88.50.
What is the share price target of Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd in 2028?
Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹91.01 by year-end (range: ₹89.10 to ₹92.02), representing a 2.84% increase from the current price of ₹88.50.
What is the share price target of Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd in 2029?
Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹90.93 by year-end (range: ₹90.51 to ₹92.59), representing a 2.75% increase from the current price of ₹88.50.
Should I buy Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd appears to be a consider buying candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹123.11 vs CMP ₹88.50. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd is ₹7.10, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Par Drugs & Chemicals Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
