The next market-day median forecast for SJVN Ltd (2026-05-18) is ₹74.18 which is 4.65% lower than today’s share price of ₹77.80 with a 10–90% range of ₹69.68–₹78.63. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
SJVN Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹57.16 vs CMP ₹77.80 (-26.5%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
● Neutral
Price/EMA: 1.023 · EMA(252): ₹76.04
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Random walk
Hurst exponent: 0.478
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
-0.4%5Y+0.3%10Y
Historical drift: -9.5% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.27x
Upside -26.5% vs downside 97.7% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-36.1%
No margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
High (90.0%)
Chance of upside: 14.9% · Avg forecast error: 2.42% · 595 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹1.76
(97.7% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹63.40
₹88.90
CMP: ₹77.8056% into range12.5% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹57.16 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹7825% ₹7350% ₹6775% ₹62Target ₹57
Gap: 26.5% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: SJVN Ltd appears overvalued by 26.5% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is in a neutral regime. Volatility is moderate (35.9% annualized).
SJVN Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
78.79
+1.3%
+1.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
79.10
Feb
78.55
Mar
77.58
Apr
78.28
May
77.88
Jun
77.59
Jul
76.44
Aug
76.33
Sep
76.72
Oct
77.66
Nov
78.52
Dec
78.79
2028
80.87
+3.9%
+2.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
80.03
Feb
79.59
Mar
79.70
Apr
79.95
May
81.37
Jun
80.84
Jul
79.91
Aug
79.95
Sep
81.06
Oct
81.75
Nov
81.56
Dec
80.87
2029
79.83
+2.6%
+0.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
81.27
Feb
82.32
Mar
82.00
Apr
81.37
May
81.20
Jun
80.35
Jul
80.15
Aug
79.68
Sep
79.91
Oct
79.66
Nov
80.25
Dec
79.83
2030
76.57
-1.6%
-0.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
80.34
Feb
79.73
Mar
80.16
Apr
79.91
May
79.39
Jun
79.71
Jul
79.84
Aug
80.02
Sep
78.59
Oct
77.42
Nov
76.64
Dec
76.57
2031
76.07
-2.2%
-0.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
76.10
Feb
77.24
Mar
76.97
Apr
76.57
May
77.00
Jun
76.36
Jul
76.21
Aug
76.04
Sep
76.17
Oct
75.61
Nov
76.61
Dec
76.07
2032
78.32
+0.7%
+0.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
75.57
Feb
75.32
Mar
76.17
Apr
76.45
May
77.11
Jun
76.90
Jul
77.38
Aug
77.17
Sep
77.85
Oct
78.28
Nov
78.06
Dec
78.32
2033
82.41
+5.9%
+0.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
78.29
Feb
78.94
Mar
79.57
Apr
80.11
May
80.94
Jun
81.37
Jul
81.14
Aug
82.21
Sep
82.44
Oct
82.95
Nov
82.81
Dec
82.41
2034
84.42
+8.5%
+1.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
82.36
Feb
82.14
Mar
83.22
Apr
83.27
May
83.82
Jun
84.20
Jul
84.76
Aug
84.28
Sep
85.07
Oct
85.49
Nov
84.56
Dec
84.42
2035
83.23
+7.0%
+0.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
83.74
Feb
84.11
Mar
84.40
Apr
85.40
May
84.67
Jun
85.13
Jul
84.97
Aug
84.77
Sep
84.45
Oct
84.23
Nov
83.97
Dec
83.23
2036
79.89
+2.7%
+0.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
82.88
Feb
83.19
Mar
83.10
Apr
83.26
May
83.28
Jun
82.51
Jul
82.22
Aug
81.76
Sep
80.63
Oct
80.51
Nov
80.59
Dec
79.89
SJVN Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
2.23%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
61.7%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹2.11
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will SJVN Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
SJVN Ltd median forecast is ₹74.18 on 2026-05-18, which is 4.65% lower than today’s price of ₹77.80. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹69.68 to ₹78.63. Forecast confidence is 90.0%, with probability-up estimate of 14.9%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of SJVN Ltd?
SJVN Ltd intrinsic value is ₹57.16, which is 26.53% below the current price of ₹77.80. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of SJVN Ltd in 2027?
SJVN Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹78.79 by year-end (range: ₹76.33 to ₹79.10), representing a 1.27% increase from the current price of ₹77.80.
What is the share price target of SJVN Ltd in 2028?
SJVN Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹80.87 by year-end (range: ₹79.59 to ₹81.75), representing a 3.95% increase from the current price of ₹77.80.
What is the share price target of SJVN Ltd in 2029?
SJVN Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹79.83 by year-end (range: ₹79.66 to ₹82.32), representing a 2.61% increase from the current price of ₹77.80.
Should I buy SJVN Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, SJVN Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹57.16 vs CMP ₹77.80. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for SJVN Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for SJVN Ltd is ₹1.76, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
SJVN Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for SJVN Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for SJVN Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for SJVN Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
