The next market-day median forecast for Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd (2026-07-06) is ₹434.35 which is 15.00% lower than today’s share price of ₹511.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹434.35–₹434.35. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹307.42 vs CMP ₹511.00 (-39.8%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
● Neutral
Price/EMA: 0.998 · EMA(252): ₹512.24
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
50.5% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Falling (recent < historical)
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Mean-reverting
Hurst exponent: 0.405
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
+1.7%5Y-0.7%10Y
Historical drift: -2.8% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.41x
Upside -39.8% vs downside 97.9% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-66.2%
No margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
High (79.2%)
Chance of upside: 0.0% · Avg forecast error: 7.48% · 598 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹10.92
(97.9% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹461.00
₹591.00
CMP: ₹511.0038% into range13.5% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹307.42 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹51125% ₹46050% ₹40975% ₹358Target ₹307
Gap: 39.8% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd appears overvalued by 39.8% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is in a neutral regime. A Hurst exponent of 0.40 suggests mean-reverting behavior — extreme moves tend to reverse. Volatility is high (50.5% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
523.61
+2.5%
+2.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
510.16
Feb
504.75
Mar
508.94
Apr
529.36
May
519.58
Jun
532.61
Jul
541.72
Aug
522.42
Sep
541.75
Oct
529.18
Nov
528.09
Dec
523.61
2028
569.28
+11.4%
+5.5%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
531.68
Feb
532.17
Mar
532.10
Apr
530.82
May
563.84
Jun
578.80
Jul
585.46
Aug
582.89
Sep
601.11
Oct
595.97
Nov
590.21
Dec
569.28
2029
552.81
+8.2%
+2.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
585.80
Feb
584.88
Mar
579.90
Apr
579.88
May
569.00
Jun
582.48
Jul
569.31
Aug
569.65
Sep
574.39
Oct
561.55
Nov
558.03
Dec
552.81
2030
532.97
+4.3%
+1.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
545.00
Feb
567.21
Mar
570.05
Apr
546.95
May
525.48
Jun
522.01
Jul
521.88
Aug
517.00
Sep
518.98
Oct
510.86
Nov
523.55
Dec
532.97
2031
556.95
+9.0%
+1.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
543.48
Feb
542.34
Mar
542.68
Apr
534.34
May
536.59
Jun
566.54
Jul
557.32
Aug
558.92
Sep
561.49
Oct
577.48
Nov
559.08
Dec
556.95
2032
544.21
+6.5%
+1.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
575.72
Feb
574.05
Mar
562.53
Apr
544.40
May
564.79
Jun
546.96
Jul
548.72
Aug
552.12
Sep
551.49
Oct
559.22
Nov
539.21
Dec
544.21
2033
520.04
+1.8%
+0.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
535.47
Feb
522.48
Mar
526.82
Apr
517.92
May
503.44
Jun
512.12
Jul
510.30
Aug
506.40
Sep
501.39
Oct
509.24
Nov
519.78
Dec
520.04
2034
479.97
-6.1%
-0.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
498.89
Feb
492.26
Mar
486.54
Apr
493.65
May
507.61
Jun
528.25
Jul
522.85
Aug
514.67
Sep
509.02
Oct
498.56
Nov
475.56
Dec
479.97
2035
494.24
-3.3%
-0.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
479.70
Feb
474.75
Mar
483.70
Apr
483.68
May
483.85
Jun
509.16
Jul
504.46
Aug
501.78
Sep
507.89
Oct
510.65
Nov
501.27
Dec
494.24
2036
477.04
-6.6%
-0.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
486.96
Feb
474.92
Mar
469.59
Apr
476.02
May
470.76
Jun
460.66
Jul
463.49
Aug
462.37
Sep
481.61
Oct
477.49
Nov
463.90
Dec
477.04
Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
3.71%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
54%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹18.18
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd median forecast is ₹434.35 on 2026-07-06, which is 15.00% lower than today’s price of ₹511.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹434.35 to ₹434.35. Forecast confidence is 79.2%, with probability-up estimate of 0.0%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd intrinsic value is ₹307.42, which is 39.84% below the current price of ₹511.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd in 2027?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹523.61 by year-end (range: ₹504.75 to ₹541.75), representing a 2.47% increase from the current price of ₹511.00.
What is the share price target of Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd in 2028?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹569.28 by year-end (range: ₹530.82 to ₹601.11), representing a 11.41% increase from the current price of ₹511.00.
What is the share price target of Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd in 2029?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹552.81 by year-end (range: ₹552.81 to ₹585.80), representing a 8.18% increase from the current price of ₹511.00.
Should I buy Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹307.42 vs CMP ₹511.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd is ₹10.92, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Sarda Energy & Minerals Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
