← Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd Intrinsic Value & Fundamental Analysis
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SWANDEF Share Price Target 2026, 2030, 2035 | Updated Jul 2026

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd share price today: ₹2,344.00  |  Next market-day median forecast: ₹1,992.40 (2026-07-13)  |  10–90% range: ₹1,992.40–₹1,992.40  |  Forecast confidence: 42.6%  |  Chance of upside: 1.4%  |  Intrinsic value: ₹901.91  |  2027 target: ₹1,785.73  |  2036 target: ₹816.45

The next market-day median forecast for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd (2026-07-13) is ₹1,992.40 which is 15.00% lower than today’s share price of ₹2,344.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹1,992.40–₹1,992.40. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.

Interactive Share Price Forecast

Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.

Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
HorizonTarget dateMedian forecastRangeReturnChance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd – Investor Insights

Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹901.91 vs CMP ₹2,344.00 (-61.5%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▲ Bullish
Price/EMA: 1.548 · EMA(252): ₹1,514.43
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
396.9% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Falling (recent < historical)
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Random walk
Hurst exponent: 0.461
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
-14.4% 5Y   -10% 10Y
Historical drift: +513.4% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.63x
Upside -61.5% vs downside 98% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-159.9%
No margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
Low (42.6%)
Chance of upside: 1.4% · Avg forecast error: 18.62% · 341 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹46.88
(98% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹1,199.00
₹2,399.00
CMP: ₹2,344.0095% into range2.3% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
▲ 14 months up (88%)▼ 2 months down
Avg: +1,121.21%/moBest: +17,726.1%Worst: -10.6%Months analysed: 16
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹901.91 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now
₹2,34425%
₹1,98350%
₹1,62375%
₹1,262Target
₹902
Gap: 61.5% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd appears overvalued by 61.5% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bullish regime (price above EMA). Volatility is high (396.9% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
YearProjected Price (₹)Growth %CAGR
2027 1,785.73-23.8%-23.8%
2028 1,351.74-42.3%-24.1%
2029 994.08-57.6%-24.9%
2030 706.71-69.9%-25.9%
2031 1,080.40-53.9%-14.4%
2032 1,390.46-40.7%-8.3%
2033 698.76-70.2%-15.9%
2034 726.03-69.0%-13.6%
2035 796.89-66.0%-11.3%
2036 816.45-65.2%-10.0%

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd Stock Price Analysis

Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
14.4%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
48.1%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹210.27
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
212
View period
Chart layers
Selected period: MaxMAPE: 14.4%Direction: 48.1%Avg error: ₹210.27Forecast points: 212

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd – Historical Performance vs Predictions

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd – 3-Month Price Forecast

90-day target: ₹38,860.66|Range: ₹1,119.46 – ₹1,348,994.86|By: 30 Sep 2026

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd Next Market-Day Share Price Probability Distribution

Median forecast: ₹1,992.40 · Expected range: ₹1,992.40 – ₹1,992.40 · Chance of upside: 1.4%

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd Share Price Target – Frequently Asked Questions

Will Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd median forecast is ₹1,992.40 on 2026-07-13, which is 15.00% lower than today’s price of ₹2,344.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹1,992.40 to ₹1,992.40. Forecast confidence is 42.6%, with probability-up estimate of 1.4%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd?
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd intrinsic value is ₹901.91, which is 61.52% below the current price of ₹2,344.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd in 2027?
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹1,785.73 by year-end (range: ₹1,785.73 to ₹3,111.18), representing a -23.82% decrease from the current price of ₹2,344.00.
What is the share price target of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd in 2028?
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹1,351.74 by year-end (range: ₹1,183.56 to ₹1,648.69), representing a -42.33% decrease from the current price of ₹2,344.00.
What is the share price target of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd in 2029?
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹994.08 by year-end (range: ₹785.27 to ₹1,148.14), representing a -57.59% decrease from the current price of ₹2,344.00.
Should I buy Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹901.91 vs CMP ₹2,344.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd is ₹46.88, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Want to understand our prediction methodology?
Learn how Getaka’s forecasting method works →

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets

We calculate the share price targets for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.

Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns

The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:

\[ \text{Log Return} = \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) \]

Where:

  • Si: Stock price at time i
  • Si-1: Stock price at time i-1

The log returns are calculated for each consecutive pair of stock prices between the start date (September 16, 2024) and the end date (July 10, 2026).

341 valid data points from the historical price data in the period from September 16, 2024 to July 10, 2026 have been used for the calculations.

Step 2: Calculate the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

The EMA is a weighted average of past prices that gives more importance to recent prices. It is calculated as follows:

\[ EMA = \alpha \times P_{t} + (1 - \alpha) \times EMA_{t-1} \]

Where:

  • α: Smoothing factor \(\frac{2}{n+1}\)
  • Pt: Current stock price at time t
  • EMAt-1: EMA from the previous time step

Step 3: Calculate the Drift (Average Growth Rate)

The drift is the average rate at which the stock price grows over time. It is calculated as the mean of the log returns:

\[ \mu = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) \]

For Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd, the drift (average growth rate) is 2.04%.

Step 4: Calculate the Volatility

The volatility measures the extent of price fluctuations. It is calculated as the standard deviation of the log returns:

\[ \sigma = \sqrt{ \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \left( \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) - \mu \right)^2 } \]

Step 5: Calculate the Hurst Exponent

The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:

\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]

Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA

The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.

Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd

The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.

Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years

The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.

Conclusion

Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.

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Disclaimer

The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.