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Last Updated on: 22 November, 2024
Author: Getaka|Social: Getaka Financial Services X (Earlier Twitter) Profile Getaka Financial Services LinkedIn Logo

Kalyani Forge Ltd: Intrinsic Value and Fundamental Analysis

Share Price and Basic Stock Data

Last Updated: November 21, 2024, 9:56 pm

Market Cap 213 Cr.
Current Price 585
High / Low728/371
Stock P/E32.8
Book Value 237
Dividend Yield0.51 %
ROCE8.85 %
ROE5.64 %
Face Value 10.0
PEG Ratio0.33

Stock P/E, Current Price, and Intrinsic Value Over Time

View Share Price Target for Kalyani Forge Ltd

Competitors of Kalyani Forge Ltd

Stock NameMarket CapCurrent PriceHigh / LowStock P/EBook ValueDividend YieldROCEROEFace Value
Happy Forgings Ltd 10,074 Cr. 1,0661,300/81338.9 1820.38 %22.7 %18.7 % 2.00
EL Forge Ltd 66.2 Cr. 32.635.2/9.1526.8 11.60.00 %%% 10.0
CIE Automotive India Ltd 17,432 Cr. 460628/40121.3 1631.09 %18.3 %20.3 % 10.0
Amforge Industries Ltd 16.4 Cr. 11.417.2/6.80 8.830.00 %3.55 %3.17 % 2.00
Tirupati Forge Ltd 528 Cr. 51.055.4/11.657.4 5.320.00 %18.3 %15.0 % 2.00
Industry Average13,568.25 Cr415.49180.16143.690.31%12.37%15.20%5.92

All Competitor Stocks of Kalyani Forge Ltd

Quarterly Result

MonthDec 2020Mar 2021Jun 2021Sep 2021Dec 2021Mar 2022Jun 2022Sep 2022Dec 2022Mar 2023Jun 2023Sep 2023Dec 2023
Sales56.0966.8856.0262.9361.1566.4058.6373.5470.0864.4259.3560.9159.70
Expenses50.6962.2351.5457.3956.4662.4255.9771.9364.1960.1254.2456.2256.81
Operating Profit5.404.654.485.544.693.982.661.615.894.305.114.692.89
OPM %9.63%6.95%8.00%8.80%7.67%5.99%4.54%2.19%8.40%6.67%8.61%7.70%4.84%
Other Income0.680.110.250.090.150.821.850.061.361.900.321.081.76
Interest1.170.520.721.050.801.060.730.561.100.981.211.451.75
Depreciation3.173.153.103.123.083.043.082.952.652.502.532.721.25
Profit before tax1.741.090.911.460.960.700.70-1.843.502.721.691.601.65
Tax %-47.70%133.03%12.09%25.34%50.00%-10.00%-65.71%41.85%20.57%72.06%39.05%18.12%7.88%
Net Profit2.57-0.360.801.090.480.761.15-1.082.770.761.031.301.51
EPS in Rs7.06-0.992.203.001.322.093.16-2.977.612.092.833.574.15

Last Updated: Unknown

Quarterly Chart

Profit & Loss - Annual Report

Last Updated: Unknown

MonthMar 2012Mar 2013Mar 2014Mar 2015Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023TTM
Sales278261205241231227259286201181246267244
Expenses238228182226215212237261193168228252227
Operating Profit4033241416152226813191417
OPM %14%13%11%6%7%7%8%9%4%7%8%5%7%
Other Income1222357631155
Interest9856546853435
Depreciation1213131312101315141312119
Profit before tax20147-325910-8-2458
Tax %32%36%33%24%46%33%29%28%15%15%22%29%
Net Profit1395-21377-7-2345
EPS in Rs36.8624.2713.14-6.213.029.5718.0319.13-19.05-4.848.609.9212.64
Dividend Payout %7%10%19%0%66%21%19%21%-5%-31%35%30%

Profit & Loss Yearly Chart

YoY Net Profit Growth

Year2012-20132013-20142014-20152015-20162016-20172017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-2023
YoY Net Profit Growth (%)-30.77%-44.44%-140.00%150.00%200.00%133.33%0.00%-200.00%71.43%250.00%33.33%
Change in YoY Net Profit Growth (%)0.00%-13.68%-95.56%290.00%50.00%-66.67%-133.33%-200.00%271.43%178.57%-216.67%

Kalyani Forge Ltd has shown an inconsistent trend in YoY Net Profit Growth (%) in the last 11 years from 2012-2013 to 2022-2023.

Growth

Compounded Sales Growth
10 Years:1%
5 Years:-4%
3 Years:9%
TTM:-7%
Compounded Profit Growth
10 Years:-1%
5 Years:-8%
3 Years:76%
TTM:214%
Stock Price CAGR
10 Years:9%
5 Years:30%
3 Years:45%
1 Year:38%
Return on Equity
10 Years:1%
5 Years:0%
3 Years:3%
Last Year:6%

Last Updated: Unknown

Balance Sheet

Last Updated: November 14, 2024, 9:33 pm

MonthMar 2013Mar 2014Mar 2015Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Sep 2024
Equity Capital4444444444444
Reserves9599949498103108989799747883
Borrowings69604741636347312726386165
Other Liabilities51485760716569515654656276
Total Liabilities219210201199236235227184183183181205227
Fixed Assets83796164608478655344395663
CWIP7141783050112356
Investments0000000000000
Other Assets128117123127147146148118129137138143158
Total Assets219210201199236235227184183183181205227

Reserves and Borrowings Chart

Cash Flow

MonthMar 2013Mar 2014Mar 2015Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024
Cash from Operating Activity +3019251915123024711-210
Cash from Investing Activity +-24-6-2-5-41-2-7-1-1-4-6-26
Cash from Financing Activity +-11-15-20-1119-8-25-23-7-5816
Net Cash Flow-5-233-72-2-0-12-1-0

Free Cash Flow

MonthMar 2012Mar 2013Mar 2014Mar 2015Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023
Free Cash Flow40.00-36.00-36.00-33.00-25.00-48.00-41.00-21.00-23.00-14.00-7.00-24.00

Free Cash Flow = Income Generated from Operational Activities - Borrowings - Capital Work in Progress (CWIP)

Consistent positive free cash flow is crucial for businesses as it indicates their ability to generate cash from their core operations. It provides financial flexibility, allowing companies to invest in growth opportunities, pay dividends to shareholders, reduce debt, and weather economic downturns more effectively.

Free Cash Flow Chart

Financial Efficiency Indicators

MonthMar 2013Mar 2014Mar 2015Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024
Debtor Days8494929899999610313510810395
Inventory Days9213096117156139123143178135114180
Days Payable8810611812814614312212314195107146
Cash Conversion Cycle8811870871099497123172148110129
Working Capital Days688971768492829713711295117
ROCE %13%8%2%5%6%9%10%-2%1%6%4%9%

Financial Efficiency Indicators Chart

Share Holding Pattern

MonthSep 2021Dec 2021Mar 2022Jun 2022Sep 2022Dec 2022Mar 2023Jun 2023Sep 2023Dec 2023Mar 2024Jun 2024
Promoters58.61%58.61%58.61%58.61%58.61%58.71%58.71%58.71%58.71%58.71%58.71%58.70%
Public41.39%41.39%41.39%41.39%41.38%41.28%41.29%41.28%41.28%41.29%41.29%41.30%
No. of Shareholders4,1984,2904,2464,2384,2984,9335,0074,9495,5965,5305,8786,571

Shareholding Pattern Chart

No. of Shareholders

This stock is not held by any mutual fund

ROCE Trend

EPS Trend

Key Financial Ratios

MonthMar 24Mar 23Mar 22Mar 21Mar 20
FaceValue10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Basic EPS (Rs.)12.519.928.61-4.84-19.04
Diluted EPS (Rs.)12.519.928.61-4.84-19.04
Cash EPS (Rs.)29.5940.6742.5230.4019.13
Book Value[Excl.RevalReserv]/Share (Rs.)225.35289.86282.88275.33280.63
Book Value[Incl.RevalReserv]/Share (Rs.)225.35289.86282.88275.33280.63
Dividend / Share (Rs.)3.003.003.001.501.00
Revenue From Operations / Share (Rs.)650.69732.82677.39496.79552.21
PBDIT / Share (Rs.)48.7358.9454.9337.2430.59
PBIT / Share (Rs.)31.6528.1921.022.00-7.57
PBT / Share (Rs.)15.4413.9211.05-5.69-22.34
Net Profit / Share (Rs.)12.519.918.61-4.84-19.03
PBDIT Margin (%)7.488.048.107.495.54
PBIT Margin (%)4.863.843.100.40-1.37
PBT Margin (%)2.371.891.63-1.14-4.04
Net Profit Margin (%)1.921.351.27-0.97-3.44
Return on Networth / Equity (%)5.543.423.04-1.75-6.78
Return on Capital Employeed (%)10.559.076.980.68-2.53
Return On Assets (%)2.221.751.70-0.96-3.75
Long Term Debt / Equity (X)0.230.010.000.000.01
Total Debt / Equity (X)0.740.360.250.260.24
Asset Turnover Ratio (%)1.151.371.340.980.97
Current Ratio (X)1.421.691.741.581.46
Quick Ratio (X)0.830.931.080.990.93
Inventory Turnover Ratio (X)1.622.652.802.172.30
Dividend Payout Ratio (NP) (%)0.0030.2417.42-20.66-25.29
Dividend Payout Ratio (CP) (%)0.007.373.523.2825.15
Earning Retention Ratio (%)0.0069.7682.58120.66125.29
Cash Earning Retention Ratio (%)0.0092.6396.4896.7274.85
Interest Coverage Ratio (X)3.016.365.514.842.07
Interest Coverage Ratio (Post Tax) (X)1.772.611.860.37-0.28
Enterprise Value (Cr.)202.85113.5187.8193.6152.33
EV / Net Operating Revenue (X)0.850.420.350.510.26
EV / EBITDA (X)11.445.294.396.914.70
MarketCap / Net Operating Revenue (X)0.620.300.270.380.16
Retention Ratios (%)0.0069.7582.57120.66125.29
Price / BV (X)1.800.760.640.700.32
Price / Net Operating Revenue (X)0.620.300.270.380.16
EarningsYield0.030.040.04-0.02-0.21

Profitability Ratios (%)

Liquidity Ratios

Liquidity Ratios (%)

Interest Coverage Ratios (%)

Valuation Ratios

Fair Value

Fair Value of Kalyani Forge Ltd as of November 22, 2024 is: 440.67

Calculation basis:

  • Fair value = P/E Ratio * (Return on Equity / 100) * Book Value * (1 + Dividend Yield / 100)
  • P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): Represents the price of the stock relative to its earnings per share. A higher P/E ratio indicates that investors are willing to pay a higher price for the stock.
  • Return on Equity (ROE): Measures a company's profitability relative to its shareholder equity. It showcases the company's ability to generate profits using the investment made by its shareholders, offering valuable insight into its operational efficiency and financial performance.
  • Book Value: Represents the net asset value of the company per share. It is calculated as the total assets minus intangible assets and liabilities, divided by the number of outstanding shares.
  • Dividend Yield: The ratio of the annual dividend per share to the current market price per share. It offers valuable insights into the profitability of an investment through dividends.

This formula allows us to gauge the fair value of the stock by analyzing its fundamental indicators.

As of November 22, 2024, Kalyani Forge Ltd is Overvalued by 24.67% compared to the current share price 585.00

Intrinsic Value of Kalyani Forge Ltd as of November 22, 2024 is: 885.11

Calculation basis:

  • Intrinsic value = P/E Ratio * (Return on Equity / 100) * Book Value * (1 + Dividend Yield / 100) * (1 + EPS CAGR for Last 5 Years)
  • P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): Represents the price of the stock relative to its earnings per share. A higher P/E ratio indicates that investors are willing to pay a higher price for the stock.
  • Return on Equity (ROE): Measures a company's profitability relative to its shareholder equity. It showcases the company's ability to generate profits using the investment made by its shareholders, offering valuable insight into its operational efficiency and financial performance.
  • Book Value: Represents the net asset value of the company per share. It is calculated as the total assets minus intangible assets and liabilities, divided by the number of outstanding shares.
  • Dividend Yield: The ratio of the annual dividend per share to the current market price per share. It offers valuable insights into the profitability of an investment through dividends.
  • EPS CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate): Represents the geometric mean growth rate of earnings per share over the last 5 years. It provides insight into the historical growth trajectory of the company's earnings.

This formula allows us to gauge the intrinsic value of the stock by analyzing its fundamental indicators along with EPS growth.

As of November 22, 2024, Kalyani Forge Ltd is Undervalued by 51.30% compared to the current share price 585.00

Last 5 Year EPS CAGR: 100.86%

*Investments are subject to market risks

Strength and Weakness

StrengthWeakness
  1. The company has higher reserves (93.85 cr) compared to borrowings (49.08 cr), indicating strong financial stability.
  2. The company has shown consistent growth in sales (240.54 cr) and profit (5.46 cr) over the years.
  1. The stock has a low average ROCE of 5.92%, which may not be favorable.
  2. The stock has a high average Working Capital Days of 93.33, which may not be favorable.
  3. The stock has a high average Cash Conversion Cycle of 112.08, which may not be favorable.

Stock Analysis

  • Considering all of the following key financial indicators, prospective investors are encouraged to conduct thorough research and seek professional guidance before considering any investment in Kalyani Forge Ltd:
    1. Net Profit Margin: 1.92%
      • Net Profit Margin: This metric indicates the percentage of profit a company makes from its total revenue. A higher net profit margin is generally desirable as it reflects better profitability.
    2. ROCE: 10.55% (Industry Average ROCE: 10.31%)
      • ROCE (Return on Capital Employed): ROCE measures a company's profitability and the efficiency with which its capital is employed. A higher ROCE indicates efficient use of capital.
    3. ROE%: 5.54% (Industry Average ROE: 12.67%)
      • ROE (Return on Equity): ROE measures a company's profitability relative to shareholders' equity. A higher ROE indicates efficient use of shareholders' funds.
    4. Interest Coverage Ratio (Post Tax): 1.77
      • Interest Coverage Ratio: The interest coverage ratio measures a company's ability to cover its interest payments on outstanding debt. A ratio greater than 2 is generally considered healthy as it indicates the company can meet its interest obligations comfortably.
    5. Quick Ratio: 0.83
      • Quick Ratio: The quick ratio assesses a company's ability to cover its short-term liabilities with its most liquid assets. A ratio higher than 1 suggests the company can meet its short-term obligations without relying heavily on inventory.
    6. Stock P/E: 32.8 (Industry average Stock P/E: 135.12)
      • Stock P/E (Price-to-Earnings) Ratio: The P/E ratio compares a company's current share price to its earnings per share. A lower P/E ratio relative to industry peers or historical values may indicate that the stock is undervalued.
    7. Total Debt / Equity: 0.74
      • Total Debt / Equity: This ratio measures a company's financial leverage by comparing its total debt to its total equity. A lower ratio indicates lower financial risk and greater financial stability.
    The current analysis is available for review. It's important to conduct thorough research and consider consulting with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.
    Stock Rating:

About the Company - Qualitative Analysis

Kalyani Forge Ltd. is a Public Limited Listed company incorporated on 29/01/1979 and has its registered office in the State of Maharashtra, India. Company’s Corporate Identification Number(CIN) is L28910MH1979PLC020959 and registration number is 020959. Currently Company is involved in the business activities of Forging, pressing, stamping and roll-forming of metal; powder metallurgy. Company’s Total Operating Revenue is Rs. 246.50 Cr. and Equity Capital is Rs. 3.64 Cr. for the Year ended 31/03/2022.
INDUSTRYADDRESSCONTACT
ForgingsShangrila Gardens, �C� Wing, 1st Floor, Pune Maharashtra 411001companysecretary@kforge.com
http://www.kalyaniforge.co.in
Management
NamePosition Held
Mrs. Rohini G KalyaniExecutive Chairperson
Mr. Viraj G KalyaniExecutive Director
Mr. Abhijit SenIndependent Director
Mr. Pradip P NadkarniIndependent Director
Mr. Gaurishankar N KalyaniNon Executive Director
Mr. Adit M RathiIndependent Director

FAQ

What is the latest intrinsic value of Kalyani Forge Ltd?

The latest intrinsic value of Kalyani Forge Ltd as on 22 November 2024 is ₹440.67, which is 24.67% lower than the current market price of ₹585.00.

What is the Market Cap of Kalyani Forge Ltd?

The Market Cap of Kalyani Forge Ltd is 213 Cr..

What is the current Stock Price of Kalyani Forge Ltd as on 22 November 2024?

The current stock price of Kalyani Forge Ltd as on 22 November 2024 is 585.

What is the High / Low of Kalyani Forge Ltd stocks in FY 2024?

In FY 2024, the High / Low of Kalyani Forge Ltd stocks is 728/371.

What is the Stock P/E of Kalyani Forge Ltd?

The Stock P/E of Kalyani Forge Ltd is 32.8.

What is the Book Value of Kalyani Forge Ltd?

The Book Value of Kalyani Forge Ltd is 237.

What is the Dividend Yield of Kalyani Forge Ltd?

The Dividend Yield of Kalyani Forge Ltd is 0.51 %.

What is the ROCE of Kalyani Forge Ltd?

The ROCE of Kalyani Forge Ltd is 8.85 %.

What is the ROE of Kalyani Forge Ltd?

The ROE of Kalyani Forge Ltd is 5.64 %.

What is the Face Value of Kalyani Forge Ltd?

The Face Value of Kalyani Forge Ltd is 10.0.

About the Author

Author Avatar
Getaka

Getaka, CFA, a financial analyst with 15 years of experience in the industry. Getaka holds an MBA degree and the Chartered Financial Analyst designation, demonstrating his profound understanding of financial analysis and investment management. Throughout his career, he has conducted numerous financial analyses and due diligence processes for companies in the industry, and has a strong track record of identifying key trends and opportunities. He leverages his expertise to deliver a thorough financial analysis of a company, encompassing its financial performance, key ratios, future prospects, and risks. Getaka is committed to providing accurate, reliable, and trustworthy information to help readers make informed decisions about their finances and investments.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The author is not a SEBI registered financial advisor and does not have any vested interest in Kalyani Forge Ltd. Investors are advised to conduct their own due diligence and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions. The information provided in this article is based on publicly available data and the author's analysis, but it may not be comprehensive or up-to-date. The author and getaka.co.in are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the content. This article is not intended to promote any particular investment strategy or recommendation, and readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Data Source: NSE