Happy Forgings Ltd: Intrinsic Value & Share Price Analysis

Fair Value

₹1,633.01Overvalued by 21.68%vs CMP ₹2,085.00

P/E (60.1) × ROE (15.0%) × BV (₹226.00) × DY (0.19%)

Defaults: ROE=15%

₹648.66Overvalued by 68.89%vs CMP ₹2,085.00
MoS: -221.4% (Negative)Confidence: 68/100 (Moderate)Models: All 9: Overvalued
ModelCategoryValueWeightSignal
PE-ROEEarnings₹1,858.0419%Over (-10.9%)
Graham NumberEarnings₹392.6517%Over (-81.2%)
Earnings PowerEarnings₹178.2411%Over (-91.5%)
DCFCash Flow₹550.1114%Over (-73.6%)
Net Asset ValueAssets₹225.447%Over (-89.2%)
EV/EBITDAEnterprise₹477.799%Over (-77.1%)
Earnings YieldEarnings₹303.207%Over (-85.5%)
ROCE CapitalReturns₹488.479%Over (-76.6%)
Revenue MultipleRevenue₹149.276%Over (-92.8%)
Consensus (9 models)₹648.66100%Overvalued
Key Drivers: Wide model spread (₹149–₹1,858) — high uncertainty.

PE-ROE · Graham · EPV · DCF · NAV · EV/EBITDA · DDM · Earnings Yield · ROCE Capital · Revenue Multiple | CoE: 12% · Terminal: 4% · EPS CAGR: 13.8% · Defaults: ROE=15%

*Investments are subject to market risks

Analysis summary

Data coverage: Price-data record updated 25 September 2026, 8:07 am +05:30. Annual results through Mar 2025; quarterly results through Dec 2025; cash flow through Mar 2026. Each section can have a different reporting period. The share price is not live.

Valuation in context

Happy Forgings Ltd: the stored intrinsic value estimate is ₹648.66, compared with a stored share price of ₹2,085.00. The model value is 68.9% below that quote. The model classifies this as overvalued; it is an estimate dependent on the inputs and assumptions, not a price target or a buy/sell recommendation.

Operating performance

Revenue for Mar 2025 was ₹1,409.00 Cr, versus ₹1,358.00 Cr in Mar 2024 (3.8% year on year). Net profit for Mar 2025 was ₹268.00 Cr, versus ₹243.00 Cr in Mar 2024 (10.3% year on year). These are the latest annual periods stored on this page; check the quarterly table separately for more recent developments.

Cash generation

For the same Mar 2025 period, operating cash flow was ₹292.00 Cr against net profit of ₹268.00 Cr. Cash flow covered 1.09 times reported profit. Cash generation supports the reported profit for this period; check whether this continues over several years.

Balance-sheet check

Reported borrowings were ₹330.00 Cr in Mar 2026. Read this alongside cash, interest costs and repayment obligations; reserves are an accounting balance and are not the same as available cash.

How to use the valuation and peer comparisons

The Intrinsic Value panel combines the available model estimates using the displayed weights. Earnings, cash-flow, dividend and asset-based methods can give very different answers. The displayed 12% cost of equity and 4% terminal growth assumptions apply where relevant; historical EPS growth is not a promise of future growth. Use the individual values and their spread to judge sensitivity.

The peer group follows the stored industry classification and may include different business models. Compare reporting periods, leverage and recurring earnings before interpreting a valuation gap. For banks and other financial businesses, capital adequacy and asset quality can be more informative than industrial-company cash-flow ratios.

Sources: Company data source. Check the company filings linked by the source for the reporting basis and exceptional items.

Automatically generated interpretation of the stored financial data, not a separately researched analyst opinion. Missing data is not evidence of poor performance. New filings become available here after the existing data refresh process captures them.

Investment Snapshot

77
Happy Forgings Ltd scores 77/100 (Strong)
Based on 5 dimensions: health, institutional flow, earnings quality, momentum, and peer comparison
Stock Health89/100 · Strong
ROCE 18.0% GoodROE 15.0% GoodD/E 0.12 Low debtInterest Coverage 59.0x StrongProfitable 5/5 available years Reported history
Smart Money40/100 · Moderate
FII holding stable No changeDII holding down 1.48% MF sellingPromoter holding at 78.5% Stable
Earnings Quality75/100 · Strong
CFO/NP ratio: 0.96x Cash-backed earningsOPM stable around 29% Steady
Quarterly Momentum68/100 · Strong
Revenue (4Q): +5% YoY GrowingProfit (4Q): +8% YoY Positive
Industry Rank90/100 · Strong
P/E 60.1 vs industry 86.9 Lower P/EROCE 18.0% vs industry 9.4% Above peersROE 15.0% vs industry 9.1% Above peers3Y sales CAGR: 18% Moderate

Weights: Health 30% · Earnings Quality 25% · Momentum 20% · Industry Rank 15% · Smart Money 10%. Scores use stored reporting periods and are screening indicators, not investment recommendations. Missing health ratios are excluded. Broad industry groups and financial-sector accounting can limit comparability.

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Share Price and Basic Stock Data

Last Updated: September 25, 2026, 8:07 am

Market Cap 19,681 Cr.
Current Price 2,085
Intrinsic Value₹648.66
High / Low 2,484/889
Stock P/E60.1
Book Value 226
Dividend Yield0.19 %
ROCE18.0 %
ROE15.0 %
Face Value 2.00
PEG Ratio4.36

Understand these figures: how to read the P/E ratio, ROE versus earnings per share, and calculate intrinsic value.

Stock P/E, Current Price, and Intrinsic Value Over Time

View Share Price Target for Happy Forgings Ltd

Competitors

Stock Name ⇩Market Cap ⇩Current Price ⇩High / Low ⇩Stock P/E ⇩Book Value ⇩Dividend Yield ⇩ROCE ⇩ROE ⇩Face Value ⇩
Happy Forgings Ltd 19,681 Cr. 2,085 2,484/88960.1 2260.19 %18.0 %15.0 % 2.00
CIE Automotive India Ltd 14,755 Cr. 389 526/36716.5 2041.80 %14.7 %11.8 % 10.0
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd 12,926 Cr. 710 773/460112 1810.14 %5.60 %2.51 % 2.00
MM Forgings Ltd (MMFL) 2,958 Cr. 613 690/27623.3 2140.65 %9.47 %11.5 % 10.0
Amic Forging Ltd 2,818 Cr. 2,440 2,505/1,06592.4 1980.00 %25.2 %18.1 % 10.0
Industry Average16,924.78 Cr625.3586.88163.630.24%9.42%9.09%6.13

All Competitor Stocks of Happy Forgings Ltd

Quarterly Result

MetricDec 2022Mar 2023Jun 2023Sep 2023Dec 2023Mar 2024Jun 2024Sep 2024Dec 2024Mar 2025Jun 2025Sep 2025Dec 2025
Sales 294302330343342343341361354352354377391
Expenses 221217230249247246244256253250253262271
Operating Profit 738610094959798105101102101116120
OPM % 25%28%30%27%28%28%29%29%29%29%29%31%31%
Other Income 2231378137101068
Interest 3534411222222
Depreciation 16141516171618201920212222
Profit before tax 566885747887869787908999104
Tax % 26%25%25%25%25%25%26%27%26%24%26%26%24%
Net Profit 42516455586664716568667379
EPS in Rs 4.655.677.166.176.156.986.787.586.857.196.977.798.37

Last Updated: March 3, 2026, 9:20 am

Quarterly Chart

Profit & Loss - Annual Report

Last Updated: February 27, 2026, 7:00 am

MetricMar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025TTM
Sales 5507505585858601,1971,3581,4091,474
Expenses 4135454164266298569711,0021,035
Operating Profit 137205142159231341388407440
OPM % 25%27%26%27%27%28%29%29%30%
Other Income 417666133735
Interest 222325127121289
Depreciation 232928363854657785
Profit before tax 9615596117192280324360381
Tax % 39%38%17%26%26%25%25%26%
Net Profit 58958086142209243268286
EPS in Rs 738.381,066.26893.18965.9215.9023.3225.7928.3930.32
Dividend Payout % 0%0%0%0%0%6%16%11%

Profit & Loss Yearly Chart

YoY Net Profit Growth

Year2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20232023-20242024-2025
YoY Net Profit Growth (%)63.79%-15.79%7.50%65.12%47.18%16.27%10.29%
Change in YoY Net Profit Growth (%)0.00%-79.58%23.29%57.62%-17.93%-30.92%-5.98%

Happy Forgings Ltd has shown an inconsistent trend in YoY Net Profit Growth (%) in the last 7 years from 2018-2019 to 2024-2025.

No data available for the compounded sales growth chart.

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Balance Sheet

Last Updated: August 20, 2026, 6:30 am

MonthMar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025Mar 2026
Equity Capital 89991818191919
Reserves 1764705506367709701,5941,8312,109
Borrowings 301156105150240219143227330
Other Liabilities 928510079102119130138175
Total Liabilities 5767197638741,1301,3261,8862,2152,633
Fixed Assets 2852912754154566787449071,108
CWIP 9461094021275127123237
Investments 0300000080238
Other Assets 2823523784194615731,0151,1051,050
Total Assets 5767197638741,1301,3261,8862,2152,633

Reserves and Borrowings Chart

Cash Flow

MonthMar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025Mar 2026
Cash from Operating Activity + 1361695080209189292445
Cash from Investing Activity + -162-119-59-166-172-470-319-498
Cash from Financing Activity + 27-501083-372813966
Net Cash Flow 1-01-3-011213
Free Cash Flow 167-42-11135-412-16
CFO/OP 91%136%53%53%80%71%92%114%

Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow reported in the stored cash-flow statement (₹ Cr)
PeriodMar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025Mar 2026
Free Cash FlowN/A1.0067.00-42.00-111.0035.00-4.0012.00-16.00

This table and the chart use the Free Cash Flow row from the same stored cash-flow statement. Free cash flow generally measures operating cash flow after capital expenditure; check the source definition and reporting basis. It is not operating profit minus borrowings.

Free Cash Flow Chart

Financial Efficiency Indicators

MonthMar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025
Debtor Days 1148290103949496110
Inventory Days 111106111176173112137143
Days Payable 4830535542323428
Cash Conversion Cycle 177158148225226175199226
Working Capital Days 1231066082767110298
ROCE %32%19%18%22%26%23%19%

Financial Efficiency Indicators Chart

Share Holding Pattern

MonthDec 2023Mar 2024Jun 2024Sep 2024Dec 2024Mar 2025Jun 2025Sep 2025Dec 2025Mar 2026Jun 2026
Promoters 78.60%78.60%78.60%78.60%78.60%78.57%78.54%78.52%78.50%78.48%78.46%
FIIs 2.06%1.12%2.24%2.27%2.28%2.19%2.17%2.03%1.84%1.73%1.88%
DIIs 5.83%16.92%16.69%17.14%17.06%17.07%16.98%17.02%16.73%16.48%15.54%
Public 13.50%3.35%2.47%1.98%2.05%2.18%2.31%2.45%2.94%3.30%4.12%
No. of Shareholders 1,34,83993,58774,09065,37664,98264,67063,79061,07561,48457,81564,341

Shareholding Pattern Chart

No. of Shareholders

Happy Forgings Ltd: Intrinsic Value & Share Price Analysis - Shareholder trend analysis

Mutual Fund Holdings

Fund NameNo of SharesAUM (%)Amount Invested (Cr)Previous Number of SharesPrevious DatePercentage Change
Kotak Multicap Fund 1,706,172 0.89 229.99N/AN/AN/A
Kotak Small Cap Fund 1,597,648 1.24 215.36N/AN/AN/A
DSP Small Cap Fund 711,692 0.54 95.94700,0002025-10-30 08:13:441.67%
Aditya Birla Sun Life Flexi Cap Fund 424,215 0.22 57.18333,2862025-05-09 10:15:5327.28%
Nippon India Flexi Cap Fund 397,477 0.58 53.58N/AN/AN/A
Sundaram Focused Fund 367,376 4.86 49.52375,6042026-06-11 13:21:54-2.19%
Kotak Business Cycle Fund 291,700 1.28 39.32293,1762025-10-30 08:13:44-0.5%
Axis Small Cap Fund 275,287 0.14 37.11275,2872025-04-22 17:25:110%
Kotak Contra Fund 250,000 0.65 33.7N/AN/AN/A
Kotak Pioneer Fund 243,857 0.94 32.87N/AN/AN/A

ROCE / ROE Trend

EPS Trend

Key Financial Ratios

MonthMar 25Mar 24Mar 23Mar 22
FaceValue 2.002.002.002.00
Basic EPS (Rs.) 28.3926.7823.3215.90
Diluted EPS (Rs.) 28.3726.7523.3215.90
Cash EPS (Rs.) 36.5532.6629.3720.11
Book Value[Excl.RevalReserv]/Share (Rs.) 196.25171.17110.4388.00
Book Value[Incl.RevalReserv]/Share (Rs.) 196.25171.17110.4388.00
Revenue From Operations / Share (Rs.) 149.50144.18133.6996.09
PBDIT / Share (Rs.) 47.1342.5638.7426.47
PBIT / Share (Rs.) 38.9535.6832.6822.26
PBT / Share (Rs.) 38.1534.4331.2921.46
Net Profit / Share (Rs.) 28.3825.7923.3215.90
NP After MI And SOA / Share (Rs.) 28.3825.7923.3215.90
PBDIT Margin (%) 31.5229.5128.9727.55
PBIT Margin (%) 26.0524.7524.4423.16
PBT Margin (%) 25.5223.8823.4022.32
Net Profit Margin (%) 18.9817.8817.4416.54
NP After MI And SOA Margin (%) 18.9817.8817.4416.54
Return on Networth / Equity (%) 14.4515.0621.1118.06
Return on Capital Employeed (%) 19.4320.4427.3422.51
Return On Assets (%) 12.0712.8815.7312.59
Long Term Debt / Equity (X) 0.000.000.050.09
Total Debt / Equity (X) 0.120.080.220.30
Asset Turnover Ratio (%) 0.680.840.970.00
Current Ratio (X) 2.813.071.911.74
Quick Ratio (X) 2.102.141.250.98
Inventory Turnover Ratio (X) 6.176.903.100.00
Dividend Payout Ratio (NP) (%) 14.094.780.000.00
Dividend Payout Ratio (CP) (%) 10.933.780.000.00
Earning Retention Ratio (%) 85.9195.220.000.00
Cash Earning Retention Ratio (%) 89.0796.220.000.00
Interest Coverage Ratio (X) 58.9634.0427.7933.10
Interest Coverage Ratio (Post Tax) (X) 36.5021.6317.7320.87
Enterprise Value (Cr.) 7495.558392.350.000.00
EV / Net Operating Revenue (X) 5.326.180.000.00
EV / EBITDA (X) 16.8820.930.000.00
MarketCap / Net Operating Revenue (X) 5.266.160.000.00
Retention Ratios (%) 85.9095.210.000.00
Price / BV (X) 4.005.190.000.00
Price / Net Operating Revenue (X) 5.266.160.000.00
EarningsYield 0.030.020.000.00

Profitability Ratios (%)

Liquidity Ratios

Liquidity Ratios (%)

Interest Coverage Ratios (%)

Valuation Ratios

Frequently asked questions

What is the intrinsic value of Happy Forgings Ltd and is it undervalued?

Happy Forgings Ltd: the stored intrinsic value estimate is ₹648.66, compared with a stored share price of ₹2,085.00. The model value is 68.9% below that quote. The model classifies this as overvalued; it is an estimate dependent on the inputs and assumptions, not a price target or a buy/sell recommendation. The estimate uses the available valuation models and weights shown in the Intrinsic Value panel, including earnings, cash-flow and asset-based approaches where data permits. It is not a P/E-only calculation.

What share price and 52-week range are shown for Happy Forgings Ltd?

The stored share price is ₹2,085.00. Price-data record updated: 25 September 2026, 8:07 am +05:30. This is not a live quote. The stored 52-week high / low is 2,484/889; this is a rolling range, not a financial-year range.

How have Happy Forgings Ltd's revenue and profit changed?

Revenue for Mar 2025 was ₹1,409.00 Cr, versus ₹1,358.00 Cr in Mar 2024 (3.8% year on year). Net profit for Mar 2025 was ₹268.00 Cr, versus ₹243.00 Cr in Mar 2024 (10.3% year on year). These are the latest annual periods stored on this page; check the quarterly table separately for more recent developments.

Does Happy Forgings Ltd's profit convert into cash?

For the same Mar 2025 period, operating cash flow was ₹292.00 Cr against net profit of ₹268.00 Cr. Cash flow covered 1.09 times reported profit. Cash generation supports the reported profit for this period; check whether this continues over several years.

What should I check in Happy Forgings Ltd's balance sheet?

Reported borrowings were ₹330.00 Cr in Mar 2026. Read this alongside cash, interest costs and repayment obligations; reserves are an accounting balance and are not the same as available cash.

How should I compare Happy Forgings Ltd's P/E with other stocks?

The stored P/E is 60.10. Compare companies with similar business models, growth, leverage and accounting periods. The industry group on this page is broad, and its average can be affected by outliers. A lower P/E alone does not establish undervaluation.

What could change Happy Forgings Ltd's intrinsic value estimate?

Changes in sustainable earnings, cash generation, capital needs, debt and share count can change the estimate. The displayed model uses a 12% cost of equity and 4% terminal growth assumption where applicable. Higher discount rates or weaker growth generally reduce discounted values. Compare the individual model values and weights, and verify fresh filings before relying on the result.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The author is not a SEBI registered financial advisor and does not have any vested interest in Happy Forgings Ltd. Investors are advised to conduct their own due diligence and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions. The information provided in this article is based on publicly available data and the author's analysis, but it may not be comprehensive or up-to-date. The author and getaka.co.in are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the content. This article is not intended to promote any particular investment strategy or recommendation, and readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Data Source: NSE