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Happy Forgings Ltd: Intrinsic Value & Share Price Analysis

Fair Value

₹1,127.12Overvalued by 14.74%vs CMP ₹1,322.00

P/E (43.6) × ROE (15.5%) × BV (₹208.00) × DY (0.23%)

₹569.84Overvalued by 56.90%vs CMP ₹1,322.00
MoS: -132% (Negative)Confidence: 63/100 (Moderate)Models: 1 Fair, 8 Over
ModelCategoryValueWeightSignal
PE-ROEEarnings₹1,282.4422%Fair (-3%)
Graham NumberEarnings₹376.6916%Over (-71.5%)
Earnings PowerEarnings₹192.8811%Over (-85.4%)
DCFCash Flow₹564.9813%Over (-57.3%)
Net Asset ValueAssets₹207.777%Over (-84.3%)
EV/EBITDAEnterprise₹492.619%Over (-62.7%)
Earnings YieldEarnings₹303.207%Over (-77.1%)
ROCE CapitalReturns₹428.129%Over (-67.6%)
Revenue MultipleRevenue₹149.365%Over (-88.7%)
Consensus (9 models)₹569.84100%Overvalued
Key Drivers: Wide model spread (₹149–₹1,282) — high uncertainty.

PE-ROE · Graham · EPV · DCF · NAV · EV/EBITDA · DDM · Earnings Yield · ROCE Capital · Revenue Multiple | CoE: 12% · Terminal: 4% · EPS CAGR: 13.8%

*Investments are subject to market risks

Analyst Summary

Happy Forgings Ltd operates in the Forgings segment, NSE: HAPPYFORGE | BSE: 544057, current market price is ₹1,322.00, market cap is 12,471 Cr.. At a glance, stock P/E is 43.6, ROE is 15.5 %, ROCE is 19.2 %, book value is 208, dividend yield is 0.23 %. The latest intrinsic value estimate is ₹569.84, around 56.9% below the current price, so expectations may already be running ahead of this modelled fair value. On operating trend, latest reported sales are about ₹1,409 Cr versus the prior period change of 3.8%, while latest net profit is about ₹268 Cr with a prior-period change of 10.3%. The 52-week range shown on this page is 1,398/753, which helps frame where the current quote sits within its recent trading band. Business context: About the Company - Qualitative AnalysisHappy Forgings Ltd. is a Public Limited Listed company incorporated on 02/07/1979 and has its registered office in the State of Punjab, India. Company's Corporate Identification Number(CIN) is L28910P…

This summary is generated from the stock page data available for Happy Forgings Ltd: Intrinsic Value & Share Price Analysis and is refreshed automatically when the underlying metrics change.

Investment Snapshot

67
Happy Forgings Ltd scores 67/100 (Average)
Based on 5 dimensions: health, institutional flow, earnings quality, momentum, and peer comparison
Stock Health76/100 · Strong
ROCE 19.2% GoodROE 15.5% GoodD/E 0.30 ModerateInterest Coverage 0.0x RiskyProfitable 5/5 years Consistent
Smart Money50/100 · Moderate
FII holding stable No changePromoter holding at 78.5% Stable
Earnings Quality50/100 · Moderate
OPM stable around 29% Steady
Quarterly Momentum68/100 · Strong
Revenue (4Q): +5% YoY GrowingProfit (4Q): +8% YoY Positive
Industry Rank90/100 · Strong
P/E 43.6 vs industry 67.5 Cheaper than peersROCE 19.2% vs industry 10.6% Above peersROE 15.5% vs industry 10.6% Above peers3Y sales CAGR: 18% Moderate

Weights: Health 30% · Earnings Quality 25% · Momentum 20% · Industry Rank 15% · Smart Money 10%. Scores are computed from reported financials and recalculated daily. Not investment advice.

Share Price and Basic Stock Data

Last Updated: April 26, 2026, 1:39 am

Market Cap 12,471 Cr.
Current Price 1,322
Intrinsic Value₹569.84
High / Low 1,398/753
Stock P/E43.6
Book Value 208
Dividend Yield0.23 %
ROCE19.2 %
ROE15.5 %
Face Value 2.00
PEG Ratio3.16

Stock P/E, Current Price, and Intrinsic Value Over Time

View Share Price Target for Happy Forgings Ltd

Competitors

Stock Name ⇩Market Cap ⇩Current Price ⇩High / Low ⇩Stock P/E ⇩Book Value ⇩Dividend Yield ⇩ROCE ⇩ROE ⇩Face Value ⇩
Happy Forgings Ltd 12,471 Cr. 1,322 1,398/75343.6 2080.23 %19.2 %15.5 % 2.00
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd 9,928 Cr. 546 692/46044.4 1690.37 %6.84 %14.4 % 2.00
CIE Automotive India Ltd 17,344 Cr. 457 526/38120.0 1971.53 %14.7 %11.8 % 10.0
MM Forgings Ltd (MMFL) 2,409 Cr. 499 527/27623.6 2020.80 %12.5 %15.6 % 10.0
Amic Forging Ltd 1,766 Cr. 1,529 1,750/1,06570.1 1390.00 %27.9 %21.8 % 10.0
Industry Average13,375.80 Cr466.4767.46155.020.27%10.63%10.61%6.13

All Competitor Stocks of Happy Forgings Ltd

Quarterly Result

MetricDec 2022Mar 2023Jun 2023Sep 2023Dec 2023Mar 2024Jun 2024Sep 2024Dec 2024Mar 2025Jun 2025Sep 2025Dec 2025
Sales 294302330343342343341361354352354377391
Expenses 221217230249247246244256253250253262271
Operating Profit 738610094959798105101102101116120
OPM % 25%28%30%27%28%28%29%29%29%29%29%31%31%
Other Income 2231378137101068
Interest 3534411222222
Depreciation 16141516171618201920212222
Profit before tax 566885747887869787908999104
Tax % 26%25%25%25%25%25%26%27%26%24%26%26%24%
Net Profit 42516455586664716568667379
EPS in Rs 4.655.677.166.176.156.986.787.586.857.196.977.798.37

Last Updated: March 3, 2026, 9:20 am

Quarterly Chart

Profit & Loss - Annual Report

Last Updated: February 27, 2026, 7:00 am

MetricMar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025TTM
Sales 5507505585858601,1971,3581,4091,474
Expenses 4135454164266298569711,0021,035
Operating Profit 137205142159231341388407440
OPM % 25%27%26%27%27%28%29%29%30%
Other Income 417666133735
Interest 222325127121289
Depreciation 232928363854657785
Profit before tax 9615596117192280324360381
Tax % 39%38%17%26%26%25%25%26%
Net Profit 58958086142209243268286
EPS in Rs 738.381,066.26893.18965.9215.9023.3225.7928.3930.32
Dividend Payout % 0%0%0%0%0%6%16%11%

Profit & Loss Yearly Chart

YoY Net Profit Growth

Year2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20232023-20242024-2025
YoY Net Profit Growth (%)63.79%-15.79%7.50%65.12%47.18%16.27%10.29%
Change in YoY Net Profit Growth (%)0.00%-79.58%23.29%57.62%-17.93%-30.92%-5.98%

Happy Forgings Ltd has shown an inconsistent trend in YoY Net Profit Growth (%) in the last 7 years from 2018-2019 to 2024-2025.

No data available for the compounded sales growth chart.

Balance Sheet

Last Updated: December 4, 2025, 3:01 am

MonthMar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025Sep 2025
Equity Capital 89991818191919
Reserves 1764705506367709701,5941,8311,941
Borrowings 301156105150240219143227193
Other Liabilities 928510079102119130138149
Total Liabilities 5767197638741,1301,3261,8862,2152,301
Fixed Assets 285291275415456678744907951
CWIP 9461094021275127123226
Investments 030000008086
Other Assets 2823523784194615731,0151,1051,038
Total Assets 5767197638741,1301,3261,8862,2152,301

Reserves and Borrowings Chart

Cash Flow

MonthMar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025
Cash from Operating Activity + 1361695080209189292
Cash from Investing Activity + -162-119-59-166-172-470-319
Cash from Financing Activity + 27-501083-3728139
Net Cash Flow 1-01-3-0112
Free Cash Flow 167-42-11135-412
CFO/OP 91%136%53%53%80%71%92%

Free Cash Flow

MonthMar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025
Free Cash Flow-164.0049.0037.009.00-9.00122.00245.00180.00

Free Cash Flow = Income Generated from Operational Activities - Borrowings - Capital Work in Progress (CWIP)

Consistent positive free cash flow is crucial for businesses as it indicates their ability to generate cash from their core operations. It provides financial flexibility, allowing companies to invest in growth opportunities, pay dividends to shareholders, reduce debt, and weather economic downturns more effectively.

Free Cash Flow Chart

Financial Efficiency Indicators

MonthMar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025
Debtor Days 1148290103949496110
Inventory Days 111106111176173112137143
Days Payable 4830535542323428
Cash Conversion Cycle 177158148225226175199226
Working Capital Days 1231066082767110298
ROCE %32%19%18%22%26%23%19%

Financial Efficiency Indicators Chart

Share Holding Pattern

MonthDec 2023Mar 2024Jun 2024Sep 2024Dec 2024Mar 2025Jun 2025Sep 2025Dec 2025
Promoters 78.60%78.60%78.60%78.60%78.60%78.57%78.54%78.52%78.50%
FIIs 2.06%1.12%2.24%2.27%2.28%2.19%2.17%2.03%1.84%
DIIs 5.83%16.92%16.69%17.14%17.06%17.07%16.98%17.02%16.73%
Public 13.50%3.35%2.47%1.98%2.05%2.18%2.31%2.45%2.94%
No. of Shareholders 1,34,83993,58774,09065,37664,98264,67063,79061,07561,484

Shareholding Pattern Chart

No. of Shareholders

Happy Forgings Ltd: Intrinsic Value & Share Price Analysis - Shareholder trend analysis

Mutual Fund Holdings

Fund NameNo of SharesAUM (%)Amount Invested (Cr)Previous Number of SharesPrevious DatePercentage Change
SBI Small Cap Fund 3,700,000 1.41 493.47N/AN/AN/A
Kotak Multicap Fund 1,706,172 0.95 227.55N/AN/AN/A
Kotak Small Cap Fund 1,597,648 1.26 213.08N/AN/AN/A
HSBC Small Cap Fund 969,439 0.84 129.29385,1252026-03-23 10:36:52151.72%
DSP Small Cap Fund 711,692 0.56 94.92700,0002025-10-30 08:13:441.67%
Aditya Birla Sun Life Flexi Cap Fund 424,215 0.22 56.58333,2862025-05-09 10:15:5327.28%
Nippon India Flexi Cap Fund 397,477 0.57 53.01N/AN/AN/A
Sundaram Focused Fund 375,604 4.75 50.09388,0922026-03-23 03:15:12-3.22%
Kotak Business Cycle Fund 291,700 1.27 38.9293,1762025-10-30 08:13:44-0.5%
Axis Small Cap Fund 275,287 0.14 36.72275,2872025-04-22 17:25:110%

ROCE / ROE Trend

EPS Trend

Key Financial Ratios

MonthMar 25Mar 24Mar 23Mar 22
FaceValue 2.002.002.002.00
Basic EPS (Rs.) 28.3926.7823.3215.90
Diluted EPS (Rs.) 28.3726.7523.3215.90
Cash EPS (Rs.) 36.5532.6629.3720.11
Book Value[Excl.RevalReserv]/Share (Rs.) 196.25171.17110.4388.00
Book Value[Incl.RevalReserv]/Share (Rs.) 196.25171.17110.4388.00
Revenue From Operations / Share (Rs.) 149.50144.18133.6996.09
PBDIT / Share (Rs.) 47.1342.5638.7426.47
PBIT / Share (Rs.) 38.9535.6832.6822.26
PBT / Share (Rs.) 38.1534.4331.2921.46
Net Profit / Share (Rs.) 28.3825.7923.3215.90
NP After MI And SOA / Share (Rs.) 28.3825.7923.3215.90
PBDIT Margin (%) 31.5229.5128.9727.55
PBIT Margin (%) 26.0524.7524.4423.16
PBT Margin (%) 25.5223.8823.4022.32
Net Profit Margin (%) 18.9817.8817.4416.54
NP After MI And SOA Margin (%) 18.9817.8817.4416.54
Return on Networth / Equity (%) 14.4515.0621.1118.06
Return on Capital Employeed (%) 19.4320.4427.3422.51
Return On Assets (%) 12.0712.8815.7312.59
Long Term Debt / Equity (X) 0.000.000.050.09
Total Debt / Equity (X) 0.120.080.220.30
Asset Turnover Ratio (%) 0.680.840.970.00
Current Ratio (X) 2.813.071.911.74
Quick Ratio (X) 2.102.141.250.98
Inventory Turnover Ratio (X) 6.176.903.100.00
Dividend Payout Ratio (NP) (%) 14.094.780.000.00
Dividend Payout Ratio (CP) (%) 10.933.780.000.00
Earning Retention Ratio (%) 85.9195.220.000.00
Cash Earning Retention Ratio (%) 89.0796.220.000.00
Interest Coverage Ratio (X) 58.9634.0427.7933.10
Interest Coverage Ratio (Post Tax) (X) 36.5021.6317.7320.87
Enterprise Value (Cr.) 7495.558392.350.000.00
EV / Net Operating Revenue (X) 5.326.180.000.00
EV / EBITDA (X) 16.8820.930.000.00
MarketCap / Net Operating Revenue (X) 5.266.160.000.00
Retention Ratios (%) 85.9095.210.000.00
Price / BV (X) 4.005.190.000.00
Price / Net Operating Revenue (X) 5.266.160.000.00
EarningsYield 0.030.020.000.00

Profitability Ratios (%)

Liquidity Ratios

Liquidity Ratios (%)

Interest Coverage Ratios (%)

Valuation Ratios

About the Company - Qualitative Analysis

Happy Forgings Ltd. is a Public Limited Listed company incorporated on 02/07/1979 and has its registered office in the State of Punjab, India. Company's Corporate Identification Number(CIN) is L28910PB1979PLC004008 and registration number is 004008. Currently Company is involved in the business activities of Forging, pressing, stamping and roll-forming of metal; powder metallurgy. Company's Total Operating Revenue is Rs. 1408.89 Cr. and Equity Capital is Rs. 18.85 Cr. for the Year ended 31/03/2025.
INDUSTRYADDRESSCONTACT
ForgingsB-XXIX, 2254/1, Kanganwal Road, Ludhiana Punjab 141120Contact not found
Management
NamePosition Held
Mr. Paritosh KumarChairman & Managing Director
Mr. Ashish GargManaging Director
Ms. Megha GargWhole Time Director
Mr. Ravindra PisharodyIndependent Director
Ms. Rajeswari KarthigeyanIndependent Director
Mr. Atul Behari LallIndependent Director

FAQ

What is the intrinsic value of Happy Forgings Ltd and is it undervalued?

As of 28 April 2026, Happy Forgings Ltd's intrinsic value is ₹569.84, which is 56.90% lower than the current market price of ₹1,322.00, suggesting the stock is overvalued. This is calculated using the PE ratio method factoring in ROE (15.5 %), book value (₹208), dividend yield (0.23 %), and 5-year EPS CAGR.

What is the current share price and 52-week range of Happy Forgings Ltd?

Happy Forgings Ltd is trading at ₹1,322.00 as of 28 April 2026, with a FY2026-2027 high of ₹1,398 and low of ₹753. The stock is currently near its 52-week high. Market cap stands at ₹12,471 Cr..

How does Happy Forgings Ltd's P/E ratio compare to its industry?

Happy Forgings Ltd has a P/E ratio of 43.6, which is below the industry average of 67.46. This is broadly in line with or below the industry average.

Is Happy Forgings Ltd financially healthy?

Key indicators for Happy Forgings Ltd: ROCE of 19.2 % indicates efficient capital utilization; ROE of 15.5 % shows strong shareholder returns. Dividend yield is 0.23 %.

Is Happy Forgings Ltd profitable and how is the profit trend?

Happy Forgings Ltd reported a net profit of ₹268 Cr in Mar 2025 on revenue of ₹1,409 Cr. Compared to ₹142 Cr in Mar 2022, the net profit shows an improving trend.

Does Happy Forgings Ltd pay dividends?

Happy Forgings Ltd has a dividend yield of 0.23 % at the current price of ₹1,322.00. The company pays dividends, though the yield is modest.

Last Updated: April 26, 2026, 1:39 am
Author: Getaka|Social: XLinkedIn
Stock Ticker - BSE: 544057 | NSE: HAPPYFORGE
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The author is not a SEBI registered financial advisor and does not have any vested interest in Happy Forgings Ltd. Investors are advised to conduct their own due diligence and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions. The information provided in this article is based on publicly available data and the author's analysis, but it may not be comprehensive or up-to-date. The author and getaka.co.in are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the content. This article is not intended to promote any particular investment strategy or recommendation, and readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Data Source: NSE
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