The next market-day median forecast for Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd (2026-05-18) is ₹487.73 which is 0.46% lower than today’s share price of ₹490.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹477.20–₹498.57. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Fairly Valued
Intrinsic ₹478.54 vs CMP ₹490.00 (-2.3%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▲ Bullish
Price/EMA: 1.183 · EMA(252): ₹414.31
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
40.6% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Stable
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Trending (persistent)
Hurst exponent: 0.570
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
-1.1%5Y-1%10Y
Historical drift: -15.6% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.02x
Upside -2.3% vs downside 98% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-2.4%
No margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
High (92.3%)
Chance of upside: 40.7% · Avg forecast error: 2.29% · 592 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹9.80
(98% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹311.00
₹490.00
CMP: ₹490.00100% into range0% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹478.54 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹49025% ₹48750% ₹48475% ₹481Target ₹479
Gap: 2.3% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd is trading near fair value. The stock is currently in a bullish regime (price above EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.57 indicates trending behavior — recent price momentum is likely to persist. Volatility is high (40.6% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
476.76
-2.7%
-2.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
487.63
Feb
485.09
Mar
480.54
Apr
479.19
May
478.45
Jun
480.25
Jul
479.13
Aug
475.24
Sep
474.77
Oct
473.57
Nov
472.86
Dec
476.76
2028
467.40
-4.6%
-2.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
476.27
Feb
472.69
Mar
473.66
Apr
470.59
May
468.76
Jun
469.55
Jul
468.94
Aug
472.33
Sep
472.86
Oct
469.21
Nov
466.11
Dec
467.40
2029
464.86
-5.1%
-1.7%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
466.79
Feb
468.04
Mar
468.25
Apr
467.56
May
463.97
Jun
463.65
Jul
464.09
Aug
464.55
Sep
464.97
Oct
466.16
Nov
467.29
Dec
464.86
2030
469.98
-4.1%
-1.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
466.71
Feb
465.70
Mar
464.74
Apr
462.04
May
467.40
Jun
466.38
Jul
463.76
Aug
465.70
Sep
466.89
Oct
465.98
Nov
465.19
Dec
469.98
2031
464.60
-5.2%
-1.1%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
475.88
Feb
472.35
Mar
470.80
Apr
469.88
May
467.25
Jun
464.74
Jul
466.20
Aug
465.57
Sep
465.28
Oct
465.66
Nov
464.31
Dec
464.60
2032
453.05
-7.5%
-1.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
464.43
Feb
462.95
Mar
462.73
Apr
461.26
May
458.56
Jun
455.26
Jul
457.45
Aug
457.05
Sep
454.25
Oct
453.45
Nov
453.65
Dec
453.05
2033
445.15
-9.2%
-1.4%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
454.43
Feb
455.60
Mar
454.13
Apr
454.40
May
454.90
Jun
452.00
Jul
449.10
Aug
450.98
Sep
453.33
Oct
450.34
Nov
447.46
Dec
445.15
2034
441.98
-9.8%
-1.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
443.53
Feb
441.30
Mar
443.99
Apr
443.69
May
445.83
Jun
446.20
Jul
449.42
Aug
450.73
Sep
453.07
Oct
449.73
Nov
444.88
Dec
441.98
2035
450.26
-8.1%
-0.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
445.20
Feb
447.97
Mar
447.26
Apr
447.51
May
445.98
Jun
443.89
Jul
445.05
Aug
443.18
Sep
441.40
Oct
444.54
Nov
449.77
Dec
450.26
2036
445.17
-9.1%
-1.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
449.01
Feb
452.33
Mar
450.65
Apr
451.81
May
455.07
Jun
455.12
Jul
450.03
Aug
447.76
Sep
445.20
Oct
444.03
Nov
442.30
Dec
445.17
Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
2.34%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
64.2%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹11.78
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd median forecast is ₹487.73 on 2026-05-18, which is 0.46% lower than today’s price of ₹490.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹477.20 to ₹498.57. Forecast confidence is 92.3%, with probability-up estimate of 40.7%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd?
Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd intrinsic value is ₹478.54, which is 2.34% below the current price of ₹490.00. This suggests the stock is currently fairly valued.
What is the share price target of Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd in 2027?
Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹476.76 by year-end (range: ₹472.86 to ₹487.63), representing a -2.70% decrease from the current price of ₹490.00.
What is the share price target of Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd in 2028?
Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹467.40 by year-end (range: ₹466.11 to ₹476.27), representing a -4.61% decrease from the current price of ₹490.00.
What is the share price target of Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd in 2029?
Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹464.86 by year-end (range: ₹463.65 to ₹468.25), representing a -5.13% decrease from the current price of ₹490.00.
Should I buy Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd appears to be a hold candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹478.54 vs CMP ₹490.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd is ₹9.80, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
