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Confidence Petroleum India Ltd: Share Price Target from 2027 to 2036
Confidence Petroleum India Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Historical Performance vs Predictions
3-Month Price Forecast with Historical Context
Showing all available data points from last 3 months plus 90-day forecast
How are the Share Price Targets for Confidence Petroleum India Ltd Calculated?
We calculate the share price targets for Confidence Petroleum India Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
\[ \text{Log Return} = \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) \]
Where:
- Si: Stock price at time i
- Si-1: Stock price at time i-1
The log returns are calculated for each consecutive pair of stock prices between the start date (August 21, 2024) and the end date (January 24, 2026).
502 valid data points from the historical price data in the period from August 21, 2024 to January 24, 2026 have been used for the calculations.
Step 2: Calculate the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The EMA is a weighted average of past prices that gives more importance to recent prices. It is calculated as follows:
\[ EMA = \alpha \times P_{t} + (1 - \alpha) \times EMA_{t-1} \]
Where:
- α: Smoothing factor \(\frac{2}{n+1}\)
- Pt: Current stock price at time t
- EMAt-1: EMA from the previous time step
Step 3: Calculate the Drift (Average Growth Rate)
The drift is the average rate at which the stock price grows over time. It is calculated as the mean of the log returns:
\[ \mu = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) \]
For Confidence Petroleum India Ltd, the drift (average growth rate) is -0.19%.
Step 4: Calculate the Volatility
The volatility measures the extent of price fluctuations. It is calculated as the standard deviation of the log returns:
\[ \sigma = \sqrt{ \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \left( \ln \left( \frac{S_{i}}{S_{i-1}} \right) - \mu \right)^2 } \]
Step 5: Calculate the Hurst Exponent
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for Confidence Petroleum India Ltd
The predicted price for tomorrow is derived using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) formula with drift, volatility, and a random factor to simulate market movements.
Step 8: Multi-Period Forecast Analysis
The system generates projections for multiple time horizons (1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years) using the combined GFBM and EMA model. Each forecast period uses the appropriate number of trading days and applies time decay factors for longer-term predictions.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides realistic projections of share prices for Confidence Petroleum India Ltd across multiple time horizons by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends. The interactive forecast period selector allows you to explore predictions ranging from short-term (1 month) to long-term (10 years) perspectives.
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Disclaimer
The projected stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance of securities is not indicative of future results. Getaka Financial Technology is not responsible for any investment decisions made on the basis of this information. Investors are advised to seek independent financial advice from a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Please read all associated offer documents and terms carefully before investing.