The next market-day median forecast for EMS Ltd (2026-08-31) is ₹417.91 which is 1.44% lower than today’s share price of ₹424.00 with a 10–90% range of ₹406.05–₹430.21. The estimate uses available price history, volatility, trend behaviour and intrinsic value gap.
Interactive Share Price Forecast
Choose tomorrow, day after, weekly, monthly or custom trading-day horizons and adjust assumptions to view possible price ranges.
Scenario controls
Uses trading-day intervals for short-term and long-term forecast views.
1 = next market day, 2 = day after, 21 ≈ one trading month.
Scenario adjusts assumptions for cautious, normal or optimistic market conditions.
Wider bands show more uncertainty; narrower bands show central outcomes.
Higher volatility widens the forecast range.
Higher influence gives more weight to intrinsic value in the forecast.
Target date--
Median forecast--
Expected return--
Selected range--
Chance of upside--
Confidence--
Horizon
Target date
Median forecast
Range
Return
Chance of upside
Forecast guide: Explore possible future price ranges using available price history, intrinsic value trend, volatility and valuation gap. Estimates update as fresh market and valuation data become available.
EMS Ltd – Investor Insights
Valuation StatusiCompares the stock's intrinsic value (calculated from fundamentals like earnings, book value, and growth) with the current market price (CMP). Undervalued = potential buying opportunity. Overvalued = the market may be pricing in too much optimism.
Overvalued
Intrinsic ₹323.34 vs CMP ₹424.00 (-23.7%)
Market RegimeiShows whether the stock is in an uptrend (bullish) or downtrend (bearish) based on its Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When price is above EMA → bullish momentum. Below EMA → bearish pressure. This affects how our model adjusts volatility and predictions.
▲ Bullish
Price/EMA: 1.121 · EMA(252): ₹378.25
VolatilityiMeasures how much the stock price swings. Low (<25%) = stable, predictable price movement. Moderate (25-40%) = normal for most stocks. High (>40%) = large daily swings, higher risk. The "recent trend" shows if volatility is currently increasing or decreasing compared to its historical average.
67.6% annualized
Risk: High · Recent trend: Stable
Trend MemoryiThe Hurst Exponent measures whether price movements tend to continue (trending) or reverse (mean-reverting). Above 0.55 = momentum persists, recent trends likely to continue. Below 0.45 = price tends to snap back after big moves. Around 0.5 = random walk, past moves don't predict future direction.
Mean-reverting
Hurst exponent: 0.376
Projected CAGRiCompound Annual Growth Rate — the average yearly return if the stock reaches our projected price target. 5Y and 10Y show different time horizons. Higher CAGR = faster expected growth. Negative CAGR = the model projects the stock may decline from current levels.
+0.9%5Y+2.3%10Y
Historical drift: -17.5% annualized
Risk-Reward RatioiCompares your potential upside (to intrinsic value) against potential downside (to fundamental floor). Above 2x = favorable risk-reward, potential gain is at least double the potential loss. Below 1x = unfavorable, you risk losing more than you could gain. A negative value means the stock is already above intrinsic value.
-0.25x
Upside -23.7% vs downside 96.1% · Unfavourable
Margin of SafetyiA concept from value investing (Benjamin Graham). It measures how much cheaper the stock is compared to its intrinsic value. Positive margin = you're buying below fair value (safety cushion). Negative margin = you're paying more than the stock is fundamentally worth. Most value investors look for at least 15-25% margin of safety.
-31.1%
No margin
Forecast ConfidenceiShows how strongly the forecast is supported by available data, recent forecast behaviour and volatility. Higher confidence means the estimate has better historical support and lower uncertainty.
High (81.8%)
Chance of upside: 27.6% · Avg forecast error: 5.99% · 591 data points
Fundamental FlooriThe lowest price the stock is expected to reach under normal market conditions, based on book value and financial strength (ROE, ROCE, debt ratios). A very low floor relative to CMP means the company has limited tangible asset backing at current prices. In extreme market crashes, prices can temporarily breach this level.
₹16.56
(96.1% below CMP)
52-Week Range
iShows the stock's lowest and highest closing prices over the past year (~252 trading days). The marker shows where today's price sits within that range. Near the low = potential value opportunity or ongoing weakness. Near the high = momentum or possible overextension.
₹260.00
₹435.00
CMP: ₹424.0094% into range2.5% below 52W high
Monthly Return DistributioniBased on historical monthly returns (~21 trading days per month). Shows how many months the stock went up vs down, the best and worst single-month returns, and the win rate. A win rate above 55% with a positive average return indicates consistent performance. High best/worst spread = volatile returns.
Convergence TimelineiShows a possible timeline for the stock price to move closer to its intrinsic value. Milestones show estimated prices at 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% convergence. For overvalued stocks, convergence may indicate downside toward intrinsic value.
Target: ₹323.34 in ~5.0 years (2031)
Now ₹42425% ₹39950% ₹37475% ₹349Target ₹323
Gap: 23.7% downward · Assumed convergence period: 5.0 years
What this means: EMS Ltd appears overvalued by 23.7% relative to intrinsic value. The stock is currently in a bullish regime (price above EMA). A Hurst exponent of 0.38 suggests mean-reverting behavior — extreme moves tend to reverse. Volatility is high (67.6% annualized), implying wider price swings and higher risk.
EMS Ltd Year-Wise Share Price Target (2027–2036)
Year
Projected Price (₹)
Growth %
CAGR
2027
372.16
-12.2%
-12.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
422.57
Feb
409.50
Mar
406.90
Apr
408.40
May
400.51
Jun
383.44
Jul
359.83
Aug
364.50
Sep
377.11
Oct
382.36
Nov
369.99
Dec
372.16
2028
407.11
-4.0%
-2.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
371.23
Feb
372.91
Mar
365.32
Apr
363.01
May
348.40
Jun
334.96
Jul
338.84
Aug
336.22
Sep
354.55
Oct
360.30
Nov
396.65
Dec
407.11
2029
387.26
-8.7%
-3.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
416.37
Feb
391.83
Mar
386.08
Apr
388.25
May
389.72
Jun
389.85
Jul
382.11
Aug
399.37
Sep
412.49
Oct
405.43
Nov
399.90
Dec
387.26
2030
434.89
+2.6%
+0.6%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
374.52
Feb
388.61
Mar
386.48
Apr
390.46
May
395.80
Jun
399.08
Jul
396.79
Aug
420.47
Sep
430.01
Oct
442.08
Nov
429.13
Dec
434.89
2031
444.19
+4.8%
+0.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
438.98
Feb
458.03
Mar
447.82
Apr
441.25
May
428.87
Jun
437.53
Jul
437.88
Aug
431.60
Sep
436.81
Oct
450.29
Nov
455.07
Dec
444.19
2032
543.88
+28.3%
+4.2%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
447.60
Feb
454.97
Mar
449.27
Apr
467.17
May
490.37
Jun
493.76
Jul
488.47
Aug
471.83
Sep
496.52
Oct
508.31
Nov
515.97
Dec
543.88
2033
549.08
+29.5%
+3.8%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
544.40
Feb
537.59
Mar
532.80
Apr
536.08
May
562.56
Jun
562.00
Jul
547.59
Aug
541.57
Sep
533.49
Oct
545.20
Nov
550.21
Dec
549.08
2034
620.57
+46.4%
+4.9%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
571.04
Feb
544.38
Mar
546.35
Apr
569.80
May
566.73
Jun
540.02
Jul
556.86
Aug
581.18
Sep
557.59
Oct
554.38
Nov
588.24
Dec
620.57
2035
602.22
+42.0%
+4.0%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
631.37
Feb
602.66
Mar
569.06
Apr
573.60
May
589.25
Jun
591.88
Jul
566.67
Aug
579.48
Sep
581.71
Oct
586.40
Nov
589.42
Dec
602.22
2036
529.67
+24.9%
+2.3%
Month
Projected Price (₹)
Jan
598.57
Feb
597.31
Mar
596.77
Apr
599.58
May
616.35
Jun
609.09
Jul
588.33
Aug
567.68
Sep
542.87
Oct
534.35
Nov
522.26
Dec
529.67
EMS Ltd Stock Price Analysis
Avg Error (MAPE)iMean Absolute Percentage Error — the average difference between predicted and actual prices, expressed as a percentage. Lower is better. Below 2% = excellent, 2-5% = good, above 5% = the model struggles with this stock.
3.45%
Direction AccuracyiHow often the model correctly predicted whether the price would go up or down the next day. Above 55% = good (better than a coin flip). Above 60% = strong. This matters more than exact price accuracy for trading decisions.
60.4%
Avg Error (₹)iThe average rupee difference between predicted and actual closing prices. For a ₹100 stock, an error of ₹2 means predictions are typically off by about 2%. This gives you a sense of the prediction's precision in absolute terms.
₹18.24
PredictionsiTotal number of daily forecasts available for this stock. More observations improve the reliability of accuracy metrics and trend comparison.
Will EMS Ltd share price increase on the next market day?
EMS Ltd median forecast is ₹417.91 on 2026-08-31, which is 1.44% lower than today’s price of ₹424.00. The 10-90% forecast range is ₹406.05 to ₹430.21. Forecast confidence is 81.8%, with probability-up estimate of 27.6%. This estimate uses Getaka’s price-history, valuation-gap and volatility framework.
What is the intrinsic value of EMS Ltd?
EMS Ltd intrinsic value is ₹323.34, which is 23.74% below the current price of ₹424.00. This suggests the stock is currently overvalued.
What is the share price target of EMS Ltd in 2027?
EMS Ltd share price target for 2027 is projected to reach ₹372.16 by year-end (range: ₹359.83 to ₹422.57), representing a -12.23% decrease from the current price of ₹424.00.
What is the share price target of EMS Ltd in 2028?
EMS Ltd share price target for 2028 is projected to reach ₹407.11 by year-end (range: ₹334.96 to ₹407.11), representing a -3.98% decrease from the current price of ₹424.00.
What is the share price target of EMS Ltd in 2029?
EMS Ltd share price target for 2029 is projected to reach ₹387.26 by year-end (range: ₹382.11 to ₹416.37), representing a -8.67% decrease from the current price of ₹424.00.
Should I buy EMS Ltd stock now?
Based on current analysis, EMS Ltd appears to be a consider reviewing your position candidate. Intrinsic value is ₹323.34 vs CMP ₹424.00. Use this as a research input and match it with your risk profile, investment horizon and portfolio plan.
What is the fundamental floor price for EMS Ltd?
The fundamental floor price for EMS Ltd is ₹16.56, calculated from book value and financial strength metrics (ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity, interest coverage). This is the theoretical minimum price under normal market conditions.
EMS Ltd Share Price Prediction – How We Calculate the Targets
We calculate the share price targets for EMS Ltd using a combined approach of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend analysis. This hybrid model incorporates historical price data, memory effects through the Hurst exponent, and dynamic regime shifts based on the stock's trends. Below are the detailed steps of how these projections are calculated.
Step 1: Calculate the Log Returns
The log returns measure the relative change in stock prices over time. It is calculated as follows:
The log returns are calculated for each consecutive pair of stock prices between the start date (February 25, 2025) and the end date (August 26, 2026).
591 valid data points from the historical price data in the period from February 25, 2025 to August 26, 2026 have been used for the calculations.
Step 2: Calculate the Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The EMA is a weighted average of past prices that gives more importance to recent prices. It is calculated as follows:
The Hurst exponent measures the "memory" or persistence of the stock price movement. It is calculated as follows:
\[ H = \frac{\log(R/S)}{\log(n)} \]
Step 6: Project Future Share Prices Using GFBM and EMA
The future price of the stock is projected using a combined model of Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for trend-based regime switching.
Step 7: Predicting Tomorrow's Stock Price for EMS Ltd
The next market-day price forecast uses price trend, volatility, valuation gap and regime adjustment. The displayed value is the median estimate, supported by a 10–90% uncertainty range.
Step 8: Projected Share Prices for the Next 10 Years
The projected share prices for the next 10 years are calculated using the combined GFBM and EMA model, taking into account historical growth, volatility, and market trends.
Conclusion
Our hybrid approach provides a realistic projection of share prices for EMS Ltd over the next 10 years by considering historical performance, volatility, market memory, and current trends.
The projected stock prices are informational estimates based on available data and assumptions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should consider risk profile, investment horizon, portfolio allocation and market risks before acting on any research output. Please read all relevant documents and terms carefully before investing.
