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Last Updated on: 17 November, 2024
Author: Getaka|Social: Getaka Financial Services X (Earlier Twitter) Profile Getaka Financial Services LinkedIn Logo

National Fertilizer Ltd: Intrinsic Value and Fundamental Analysis

Share Price and Basic Stock Data

Last Updated: November 15, 2024, 2:14 pm

Market Cap 5,346 Cr.
Current Price 109
High / Low170/68.0
Stock P/E14.8
Book Value 51.9
Dividend Yield0.25 %
ROCE6.70 %
ROE5.58 %
Face Value 10.0
PEG Ratio0.31

Stock P/E, Current Price, and Intrinsic Value Over Time

View Share Price Target for National Fertilizer Ltd

Competitors of National Fertilizer Ltd

Stock NameMarket CapCurrent PriceHigh / LowStock P/EBook ValueDividend YieldROCEROEFace Value
Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd 7,746 Cr. 194322/17914.7 3372.06 %5.77 %4.55 % 2.00
Bharat Agri Fert & Realty Ltd 398 Cr. 75.2132/73.3 9.970.07 %6.14 %14.8 % 1.00
Basant Agro Tech (India) Ltd 171 Cr. 18.928.9/17.620.6 19.50.26 %5.65 %1.30 % 1.00
Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd 910 Cr. 216260/1515.08 4220.00 %8.50 %3.44 % 10.0
Southern Petrochemicals Industries Corporation Ltd (SPIC) 1,498 Cr. 73.6108/64.49.67 56.42.04 %17.8 %14.4 % 10.0
Industry Average9,540.71 Cr337.3945.00166.020.68%21.98%10.61%7.35

All Competitor Stocks of National Fertilizer Ltd

Quarterly Result

MonthDec 2020Mar 2021Jun 2021Sep 2021Dec 2021Mar 2022Jun 2022Sep 2022Dec 2022Mar 2023Jun 2023Sep 2023Dec 2023
Sales2,9392,9612,6323,6915,0924,4426,4556,75410,1376,2685,0485,6607,581
Expenses2,7312,8532,6263,5505,0014,3046,1746,5829,2356,5995,0605,7147,266
Operating Profit208108714190139281172902-331-12-55315
OPM %7%4%0%4%2%3%4%3%9%-5%-0%-1%4%
Other Income51281186221133177345828
Interest595227343438517394841043950
Depreciation79788282858587879089879092
Profit before tax76-10-9535-202216423752-326-169-127201
Tax %30%3%1%54%-14%72%23%35%26%28%28%31%25%
Net Profit53-10-9416-23612515554-236-121-87151
EPS in Rs1.08-0.19-1.920.33-0.470.122.560.3011.29-4.81-2.48-1.783.08

Last Updated: Unknown

Quarterly Chart

Profit & Loss - Annual Report

Last Updated: Unknown

MonthMar 2015Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023TTM
Sales8,5147,7577,6008,94312,42913,13511,90615,85729,61727,113
Expenses8,1307,1977,0418,40411,41712,28311,00115,46928,53926,608
Operating Profit3855605595391,0128529043881,078505
OPM %5%7%7%6%8%6%8%2%4%2%
Other Income3745456252-3313326195302
Interest304231193192320409294137308321
Depreciation73878573285374312335353356
Profit before tax45287325335459-263331-58612130
Tax %41%31%36%36%36%31%28%-63%25%
Net Profit26197208213294-181237-95458110
EPS in Rs0.534.024.244.345.99-3.694.83-1.949.342.22
Dividend Payout %32%30%0%0%31%-26%0%0%30%

Profit & Loss Yearly Chart

YoY Net Profit Growth

Year2015-20162016-20172017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-2023
YoY Net Profit Growth (%)657.69%5.58%2.40%38.03%-161.56%230.94%-140.08%582.11%
Change in YoY Net Profit Growth (%)0.00%-652.11%-3.18%35.62%-199.59%392.50%-371.02%722.19%

National Fertilizer Ltd has shown an inconsistent trend in YoY Net Profit Growth (%) in the last 8 years from 2015-2016 to 2022-2023.

Growth

Compounded Sales Growth
10 Years:%
5 Years:14%
3 Years:26%
TTM:-18%
Compounded Profit Growth
10 Years:%
5 Years:-13%
3 Years:-16%
TTM:230%
Stock Price CAGR
10 Years:11%
5 Years:33%
3 Years:29%
1 Year:56%
Return on Equity
10 Years:%
5 Years:8%
3 Years:7%
Last Year:6%

Last Updated: Unknown

Balance Sheet

Last Updated: November 14, 2024, 7:59 pm

MonthMar 2015Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Sep 2024
Equity Capital491491491491491491491491491491491
Reserves9901,1991,3341,4951,7201,4121,6501,5892,0512,0642,055
Borrowings7,6456,1244,1353,0616,4648,1031,8923,1723,9934,0911,411
Other Liabilities4,3324,2074,2234,5825,2314,5614,3825,2446,0024,5635,684
Total Liabilities13,45812,01910,1829,62813,90514,5658,41410,49612,53611,2089,641
Fixed Assets4,4434,2594,0594,0803,9933,7263,6154,2303,9693,8313,769
CWIP39335164133656862138178242228
Investments023152217265323416257259345400
Other Assets8,9757,7055,9215,2689,5139,8613,5205,8708,1316,7915,244
Total Assets13,45812,01910,1829,62813,90514,5658,41410,49612,53611,2089,641

Reserves and Borrowings Chart

Cash Flow

MonthMar 2015Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024
Cash from Operating Activity +3041,8482,4531,661-2,703-3197,021-1,029-333668
Cash from Investing Activity +-89-87-201-346-310-810-497-129-206-334
Cash from Financing Activity +-214-1,760-2,250-1,3143,0221,132-6,5051,145526-318
Net Cash Flow12119320-14-1316

Free Cash Flow

MonthMar 2015Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023
Free Cash Flow378.00554.00555.00536.00-5.00844.00903.00385.00-2.00

Free Cash Flow = Income Generated from Operational Activities - Borrowings - Capital Work in Progress (CWIP)

Consistent positive free cash flow is crucial for businesses as it indicates their ability to generate cash from their core operations. It provides financial flexibility, allowing companies to invest in growth opportunities, pay dividends to shareholders, reduce debt, and weather economic downturns more effectively.

Free Cash Flow Chart

Financial Efficiency Indicators

MonthMar 2015Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar 2018Mar 2019Mar 2020Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024
Debtor Days21622620516021021581655163
Inventory Days25496345906725905741
Days Payable15314442354742583333
Cash Conversion Cycle22524422416326523564977570
Working Capital Days24423218114720821242625061
ROCE %6%8%9%11%6%9%2%16%7%

Financial Efficiency Indicators Chart

Share Holding Pattern

MonthSep 2021Dec 2021Mar 2022Jun 2022Sep 2022Dec 2022Mar 2023Jun 2023Sep 2023Dec 2023Mar 2024Jun 2024
Promoters74.71%74.71%74.71%74.71%74.71%74.71%74.71%74.71%74.71%74.71%74.71%74.71%
FIIs0.68%0.81%0.81%0.40%0.18%0.20%0.54%0.39%0.39%1.10%0.48%0.41%
DIIs13.37%13.20%13.14%13.14%13.14%12.75%12.40%11.89%9.90%8.51%8.38%7.47%
Public11.24%11.28%11.33%11.75%11.97%12.36%12.36%13.01%15.00%15.68%16.43%17.39%
No. of Shareholders1,18,3011,15,7171,17,7261,21,1591,18,7061,19,6231,12,9851,18,2371,34,9461,57,9192,34,2012,59,888

Shareholding Pattern Chart

No. of Shareholders

Mutual Fund Holdings

Fund NameNo of SharesAUM (%)Amount Invested (Cr)Previous Number of SharesPrevious DatePercentage Change
Motilal Oswal Nifty Microcap 250 Index Fund135,7500.170.973492024-11-1238796.85%
Taurus Largecap Equity Fund97,6181.840.73492024-11-1227870.77%
Taurus ELSS Tax Saver Fund64,1600.680.463492024-11-1218283.95%
Groww Nifty Total Market Index Fund3490.0103492024-11-120%

ROCE Trend

EPS Trend

Key Financial Ratios

MonthMar 24Mar 23Mar 22Mar 21Mar 20
FaceValue10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Basic EPS (Rs.)3.069.34-1.944.83-3.69
Diluted EPS (Rs.)3.069.34-1.944.83-3.69
Cash EPS (Rs.)8.6916.499.0311.454.15
Book Value[Excl.RevalReserv]/Share (Rs.)52.0751.8141.7343.6338.77
Book Value[Incl.RevalReserv]/Share (Rs.)52.0751.8141.7343.6338.77
Revenue From Operations / Share (Rs.)480.25603.70323.23242.69267.75
PBDIT / Share (Rs.)14.6325.7712.4819.3018.67
PBIT / Share (Rs.)7.2518.585.6612.9411.04
PBT / Share (Rs.)1.8012.432.957.00-5.15
Net Profit / Share (Rs.)1.329.302.215.09-3.48
NP After MI And SOA / Share (Rs.)3.069.34-1.944.83-3.69
PBDIT Margin (%)3.044.263.867.956.97
PBIT Margin (%)1.513.071.755.334.12
PBT Margin (%)0.372.050.912.88-1.92
Net Profit Margin (%)0.271.540.682.09-1.30
NP After MI And SOA Margin (%)0.631.54-0.591.99-1.37
Return on Networth / Equity (%)5.8718.03-4.6411.07-9.51
Return on Capital Employeed (%)8.0317.795.6912.3210.70
Return On Assets (%)1.333.65-0.902.81-1.24
Long Term Debt / Equity (X)0.000.210.300.300.31
Total Debt / Equity (X)1.601.571.550.834.17
Asset Turnover Ratio (%)1.982.571.661.030.92
Current Ratio (X)0.981.081.031.071.03
Quick Ratio (X)0.720.660.620.940.89
Inventory Turnover Ratio (X)3.164.004.624.313.20
Dividend Payout Ratio (NP) (%)0.000.000.000.00-56.18
Dividend Payout Ratio (CP) (%)0.000.000.000.0052.60
Earning Retention Ratio (%)0.000.000.000.00156.18
Cash Earning Retention Ratio (%)0.000.000.000.0047.40
Interest Coverage Ratio (X)2.684.194.613.252.26
Interest Coverage Ratio (Post Tax) (X)1.242.511.811.861.54
Enterprise Value (Cr.)8348.857529.525743.284502.878806.18
EV / Net Operating Revenue (X)0.350.250.360.370.67
EV / EBITDA (X)11.645.969.384.759.61
MarketCap / Net Operating Revenue (X)0.180.120.160.230.06
Retention Ratios (%)0.000.000.000.00156.18
Price / BV (X)1.681.401.271.290.47
Price / Net Operating Revenue (X)0.180.120.160.230.06
EarningsYield0.030.12-0.030.08-0.20

Profitability Ratios (%)

Liquidity Ratios

Liquidity Ratios (%)

Interest Coverage Ratios (%)

Valuation Ratios

Fair Value

Fair Value of National Fertilizer Ltd as of November 17, 2024 is: 42.97

Calculation basis:

  • Fair value = P/E Ratio * (Return on Equity / 100) * Book Value * (1 + Dividend Yield / 100)
  • P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): Represents the price of the stock relative to its earnings per share. A higher P/E ratio indicates that investors are willing to pay a higher price for the stock.
  • Return on Equity (ROE): Measures a company's profitability relative to its shareholder equity. It showcases the company's ability to generate profits using the investment made by its shareholders, offering valuable insight into its operational efficiency and financial performance.
  • Book Value: Represents the net asset value of the company per share. It is calculated as the total assets minus intangible assets and liabilities, divided by the number of outstanding shares.
  • Dividend Yield: The ratio of the annual dividend per share to the current market price per share. It offers valuable insights into the profitability of an investment through dividends.

This formula allows us to gauge the fair value of the stock by analyzing its fundamental indicators.

As of November 17, 2024, National Fertilizer Ltd is Overvalued by 60.58% compared to the current share price 109.00

Intrinsic Value of National Fertilizer Ltd as of November 17, 2024 is: 63.25

Calculation basis:

  • Intrinsic value = P/E Ratio * (Return on Equity / 100) * Book Value * (1 + Dividend Yield / 100) * (1 + EPS CAGR for Last 5 Years)
  • P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): Represents the price of the stock relative to its earnings per share. A higher P/E ratio indicates that investors are willing to pay a higher price for the stock.
  • Return on Equity (ROE): Measures a company's profitability relative to its shareholder equity. It showcases the company's ability to generate profits using the investment made by its shareholders, offering valuable insight into its operational efficiency and financial performance.
  • Book Value: Represents the net asset value of the company per share. It is calculated as the total assets minus intangible assets and liabilities, divided by the number of outstanding shares.
  • Dividend Yield: The ratio of the annual dividend per share to the current market price per share. It offers valuable insights into the profitability of an investment through dividends.
  • EPS CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate): Represents the geometric mean growth rate of earnings per share over the last 5 years. It provides insight into the historical growth trajectory of the company's earnings.

This formula allows us to gauge the intrinsic value of the stock by analyzing its fundamental indicators along with EPS growth.

As of November 17, 2024, National Fertilizer Ltd is Overvalued by 41.97% compared to the current share price 109.00

Last 5 Year EPS CAGR: 47.20%

*Investments are subject to market risks

Strength and Weakness

StrengthWeakness
  1. The company has shown consistent growth in sales (13.70 cr) and profit (220.30 cr) over the years.
  1. The stock has a low average ROCE of 7.40%, which may not be favorable.
  2. The stock has a high average Working Capital Days of 143.90, which may not be favorable.
  3. The stock has a high average Cash Conversion Cycle of 166.20, which may not be favorable.
  4. The company has higher borrowings (4,553.73) compared to reserves (1,596.27), which may suggest financial risk.

Stock Analysis

  • Considering all of the following key financial indicators, prospective investors are encouraged to conduct thorough research and seek professional guidance before considering any investment in National Fertilizer Ltd:
    1. Net Profit Margin: 0.27%
      • Net Profit Margin: This metric indicates the percentage of profit a company makes from its total revenue. A higher net profit margin is generally desirable as it reflects better profitability.
    2. ROCE: 8.03% (Industry Average ROCE: 21.98%)
      • ROCE (Return on Capital Employed): ROCE measures a company's profitability and the efficiency with which its capital is employed. A higher ROCE indicates efficient use of capital.
    3. ROE%: 5.87% (Industry Average ROE: 9.69%)
      • ROE (Return on Equity): ROE measures a company's profitability relative to shareholders' equity. A higher ROE indicates efficient use of shareholders' funds.
    4. Interest Coverage Ratio (Post Tax): 1.24
      • Interest Coverage Ratio: The interest coverage ratio measures a company's ability to cover its interest payments on outstanding debt. A ratio greater than 2 is generally considered healthy as it indicates the company can meet its interest obligations comfortably.
    5. Quick Ratio: 0.72
      • Quick Ratio: The quick ratio assesses a company's ability to cover its short-term liabilities with its most liquid assets. A ratio higher than 1 suggests the company can meet its short-term obligations without relying heavily on inventory.
    6. Stock P/E: 14.8 (Industry average Stock P/E: 39.13)
      • Stock P/E (Price-to-Earnings) Ratio: The P/E ratio compares a company's current share price to its earnings per share. A lower P/E ratio relative to industry peers or historical values may indicate that the stock is undervalued.
    7. Total Debt / Equity: 1.6
      • Total Debt / Equity: This ratio measures a company's financial leverage by comparing its total debt to its total equity. A lower ratio indicates lower financial risk and greater financial stability.
    The current analysis is available for review. It's important to conduct thorough research and consider consulting with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.
    Stock Rating:

About the Company - Qualitative Analysis

National Fertilizers Ltd. is a Public Limited Listed company incorporated on 23/08/1974 and has its registered office in the State of Delhi, India. Company’s Corporate Identification Number(CIN) is L74899DL1974GOI007417 and registration number is 007417. Currently Company is involved in the business activities of Manufacture of urea and other organic fertilizers. Company’s Total Operating Revenue is Rs. 15857.09 Cr. and Equity Capital is Rs. 490.58 Cr. for the Year ended 31/03/2022.
INDUSTRYADDRESSCONTACT
FertilisersScope Complex, Core 3, New Delhi Delhi 110003investor@nfl.co.in
http://www.nationalfertilizers.com
Management
NamePosition Held
Mr. U SaravananChairman & Managing Director
Mr. Hira NandDirector - Finance
Mr. Poonam SharmaNon Official Independent Director
Dr. Venkata Sarvarayudu ThotaNon Official Independent Director
Mr. Neeraja AdidamGovernment Nominee Director
Mr. Ritesh TiwariNon Official Independent Director
Mr. Jyoti Bhramar TubidNon Official Independent Director
Mr. Kashi Ram GodaraNon Official Independent Director
Mr. Rajan KanwarDirector - Technical
Dr. Prathibha AnirudhanGovernment Nominee Director

FAQ

What is the latest intrinsic value of National Fertilizer Ltd?

The latest intrinsic value of National Fertilizer Ltd as on 17 November 2024 is ₹42.97, which is 60.58% lower than the current market price of ₹109.00.

What is the Market Cap of National Fertilizer Ltd?

The Market Cap of National Fertilizer Ltd is 5,346 Cr..

What is the current Stock Price of National Fertilizer Ltd as on 17 November 2024?

The current stock price of National Fertilizer Ltd as on 17 November 2024 is ₹109.

What is the High / Low of National Fertilizer Ltd stocks in FY 2024?

In FY 2024, the High / Low of National Fertilizer Ltd stocks is 170/68.0.

What is the Stock P/E of National Fertilizer Ltd?

The Stock P/E of National Fertilizer Ltd is 14.8.

What is the Book Value of National Fertilizer Ltd?

The Book Value of National Fertilizer Ltd is 51.9.

What is the Dividend Yield of National Fertilizer Ltd?

The Dividend Yield of National Fertilizer Ltd is 0.25 %.

What is the ROCE of National Fertilizer Ltd?

The ROCE of National Fertilizer Ltd is 6.70 %.

What is the ROE of National Fertilizer Ltd?

The ROE of National Fertilizer Ltd is 5.58 %.

What is the Face Value of National Fertilizer Ltd?

The Face Value of National Fertilizer Ltd is 10.0.

About the Author

Author Avatar
Getaka

Getaka, CFA, a financial analyst with 15 years of experience in the industry. Getaka holds an MBA degree and the Chartered Financial Analyst designation, demonstrating his profound understanding of financial analysis and investment management. Throughout his career, he has conducted numerous financial analyses and due diligence processes for companies in the industry, and has a strong track record of identifying key trends and opportunities. He leverages his expertise to deliver a thorough financial analysis of a company, encompassing its financial performance, key ratios, future prospects, and risks. Getaka is committed to providing accurate, reliable, and trustworthy information to help readers make informed decisions about their finances and investments.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The author is not a SEBI registered financial advisor and does not have any vested interest in National Fertilizer Ltd. Investors are advised to conduct their own due diligence and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions. The information provided in this article is based on publicly available data and the author's analysis, but it may not be comprehensive or up-to-date. The author and getaka.co.in are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the content. This article is not intended to promote any particular investment strategy or recommendation, and readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Data Source: NSE